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Jun 20 2026 05:23am
If there is a changing factor I'd say its this- it used to look like Ukraine was at risk of total collapse of their lines if Russia could bleed them out long enough, as their manpower shortage becomes so critical Russia just pushes them over like Homer Simpson boxing Boxcar Bob. Now I think the rise of AI drones gives rise to a spooky prospect- Ukraine could completely run out of soldiers and still be flooded with autonomous weapons that continue the fight indefinitely, like a minefield being ever replenished by the EU at range. What happens if they DO fight to the last Ukrainian- and keep going?


U r making it sound like the EU is to blame for the situation - u r aware it's Russia that attacked Ukraine and is very active in so called hybrid warfare not just in all member states of the EU but in your beloved country as well?
Are you on their payroll?
If so - pm me pls how much u r getting.
Might consider giving up my moral superiority if the price is right. Need more fg! Chronicle has inflated rune prices like crazy. Thx bud!

This post was edited by Sankturio on Jun 20 2026 05:24am
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Jun 20 2026 06:08am
U r making it sound like the EU is to blame for the situation - u r aware it's Russia that attacked Ukraine and is very active in so called hybrid warfare not just in all member states of the EU but in your beloved country as well?
Are you on their payroll?
If so - pm me pls how much u r getting.
Might consider giving up my moral superiority if the price is right. Need more fg! Chronicle has inflated rune prices like crazy. Thx bud!


Are you aware that Ukraine was a legitimate democracy recognized by both east and west, which was overthrown in a coup d'etat led by neo-nazis?
Replacing a democracy with a totalitarian regime with the leader of the nazi party as their speaker of parliament, with death squads hunting down journalists and political opposition, with a notable massacre of dozens of democratic loyalists burned alive
At which point the disenfranchised regions separated from the revolutionaries and entered a pitched civil war, with the US and EU immediately taking control of the west and Russia taking control of the east and years of bombardment along the borders
And since then the revolutionaries in the west continue to claim dominion over the east, despite never holding it for a single day, and refuse peace terms that would keep control of lands along the status quo

Personally I'm not too fond of Nazis, especially when they're the Nazi war criminal type glorifying the holocaust and massacres of jews, as opposed to random citizens of the third reich who just went along with the regime
but hey, some folks:


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Jun 20 2026 07:15am
Same calculation its been for multiple years now. Russia is winning the war of attrition, Ukraine is being depopulated and running out of troops, the lines are a stalemate with very minor gains for Russia. Putin doesnt want to shake things up when he's ahead. The Ukrainians stand to lose more the longer it goes and its in their interests to accept any offer sooner, but at the EU's urging and behest of nationalists they make maximalist demands, reject compromise and seek more desperate and provocative measures. Because if you're losing a conventional war of attrition you can provoke Russia into flipping the board and hope you come out on top of the chaos- even if the odds are it would be even more catastrophic than giving up their defunct claims to territory.


You're making it sound as if all Ukraine needed to do to end this war is give up the Donbass (and the small land bridge to Crimea), and then they would have lasting peace.

In reality, Russia has long sought far more territory than that. At a minimum Zap and Kharkiv, they would probably also like to take the heavy industries in Dnipro and the prime port location of Odessa. Additionally, Russia has always insisted on demilitarization, "denazification" and neutrality of Rump-Ukraine, relegating them to permanent vassal status.

Fundamentally, this conflict is about Ukraine trying to break away from Russia's sphere of influence and Russia trying to reassert itself. They haven't fought this long and this hard, just to end up with a few small territorial gains (on top of what Russia already controlled in Feb 2022), while the rest of Ukraine joins the West (except for a pinky promise of having no NATO ambitions).


What you're actually getting at is that "Ukraine is slowly but surely losing this war, therefore, they should give up their defunct claims to sovereignty".

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 20 2026 07:26am
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Jun 20 2026 07:22am
Are you aware that Ukraine was a legitimate democracy recognized by both east and west, which was overthrown in a coup d'etat led by neo-nazis?
Replacing a democracy with a totalitarian regime with the leader of the nazi party as their speaker of parliament, with death squads hunting down journalists and political opposition, with a notable massacre of dozens of democratic loyalists burned alive
At which point the disenfranchised regions separated from the revolutionaries and entered a pitched civil war, with the US and EU immediately taking control of the west and Russia taking control of the east and years of bombardment along the borders
And since then the revolutionaries in the west continue to claim dominion over the east, despite never holding it for a single day, and refuse peace terms that would keep control of lands along the status quo

Personally I'm not too fond of Nazis, especially when they're the Nazi war criminal type glorifying the holocaust and massacres of jews, as opposed to random citizens of the third reich who just went along with the regime
but hey, some folks:

https://i.imgur.com/lKLVVve.mp4


I respect you for your in depth knowledge of D2.
Hence I refrain from taunting, trolling and other disrespectful ways of pointing out false claims.
I'm sure you have your reasons to believe what you believe - hence my remark about you being a kremlin keyboard warrior.
I'm certain you've heard the 'traditional media' takes on this, so I spare us both the time elaborating on it.
Enjoy your weekend
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Jun 20 2026 07:50am
You're making it sound as if all Ukraine needed to do to end this war is give up the Donbass (and the small land bridge to Crimea), and then they would have lasting peace.
In reality, Russia has long sought far more territory than that. At a minimum Zap and Kharkiv, they would probably also like to take the heavy industries in Dnipro and the prime port location of Odessa. Additionally, Russia has always insisted on demilitarization, "denazification" and neutrality of Rump-Ukraine, relegating them to permanent vassal status.
Fundamentally, this conflict is about Ukraine trying to break away from Russia's sphere of influence and Russia trying to reassert itself. They haven't fought this long and this hard, just to end up with a few small territorial gains (on top of what Russia already controlled in Feb 2022), while the rest of Ukraine joins the West (except for a pinky promise of having no NATO ambitions).
What you're actually getting at is that "Ukraine is slowly but surely losing this war, therefore, they should give up their defunct claims to sovereignty".


Well true in that half of Ukraine was trying to break away from Russia's sphere of influence and reassert itself. After failing to secure the mandate to do so democratically, they did so autocratically and against the will of the majority half.
The wishes Russia had when they entered the war with a blitz gambit and what peace they're willing to settle for now aren't the same asks. The Ukrainian maximalist position hasn't changed, but they're forfeiting their claim to sovereignty no matter what the outcome. They used to be a vassal state to Russia in the post-soviet era, now they're a vassal state to the EU. The Russians want a demilitarized buffer, the Ukrainians want to seize control of the separatist regions and impose unilateral rule on a hostile population. Subjugating and oppressing them, what else could it be? Its not like they can be rejoined as a democratic nation, the last time they voted together, Yanukovych won. The war has to end at some point and the Ukrainian demand remains an impossible and unworkable one. If tomorrow Russia abruptly changed its mind, revoked its constitution, kicked out the DPR/LPR/Crimea and ceded them to Kyiv, what would happen? You'd still have a bitter ethnic Russian population who would never coexist with West Ukraine. Would the EU send in an occupying army and build internment camps to pacify them?

At any rate, Russia already seized most of the industry. There might be farmlands up for grab and the contested Zap and Kharkiv that Russia hopes to take if this conflict drags on for years, but like we saw last year in the land swaps proposal, they're willing to haggle for peace. They already got the lions share of what they actually wanted. If they had seized the whole of Ukraine in their blitz at the start, they'd have avoided this war of attrition but still been in the same position of trying to pacify a hostile population under occupation, and we can only speculate how that would have gone with the EU needling them and propping up a resistance.

The point of all this is, peace can actually work when the warring sides agree to keep to their sides and lay down their demands to take over the opponents they failed to defeat on a battlefield. And that's how wars end, either you win decisively or you seek terms.
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Jun 22 2026 03:42am
Oh yeah, now I see where you're coming from. I was being unclear, so let me explain:

In my second post from tonight, I was referring to the Western middle classes who couldn't stomach the suffering in Gaza which would be inevitable while Hamas and its infrastructure were being purged. Which is why they were so excessively vulnerable and receptive to pro-Palestine and anti-Israel propaganda (see, e.g., the NYT greenlighting and later defending the ridiculous piece about 'Israeli rape dogs'). And this, in turn, has caused them to apply political pressure to their own (Western) governments and basically forced those to stab Israel in the back. So when I mentioned Gaza tonight, I wanted to say that the Western middle classes' reaction to the Gaza conflict fits into the broader pattern of getting soft and weak.


What I was talking about yesterday... or let's rather say where my mind was, are the middle classes of the belligerents, Israel in the case of the Gaza war and Russia in the case of the Ukraine war. My argument was basically that the there is little reason to assume that Russia's privileged middle class wouldn't fall into a similar pattern of getting soft and weak (even if not to the same extent as their Western counterparts), because the Ukraine war just isn't existential to them. My second post from yesterday, after you had pondered about Israel, was that the Israeli middle class should not fit as neatly into this pattern because to them, the(ir respective) conflict actually is an existential threat.


I should have made this distinction much clearer all along, my bad.


I can only assume (and I hate assuming) that the reason why you have not responded is because you cannot challenge the UN report, or rather, you have dismissed it as Propaganda. You made a sweeping statement, not supported by data or facts. Ultimately, equating opposition to civilian casualties with softness rather then moral outrage, is a "you" thing. When they stole John Wicks car and killed his dog, he was morally outraged, not soft.
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Jun 22 2026 12:12pm
Well true in that half of Ukraine was trying to break away from Russia's sphere of influence and reassert itself. After failing to secure the mandate to do so democratically, they did so autocratically and against the will of the majority half.
The wishes Russia had when they entered the war with a blitz gambit and what peace they're willing to settle for now aren't the same asks. The Ukrainian maximalist position hasn't changed, but they're forfeiting their claim to sovereignty no matter what the outcome. They used to be a vassal state to Russia in the post-soviet era, now they're a vassal state to the EU. The Russians want a demilitarized buffer, the Ukrainians want to seize control of the separatist regions and impose unilateral rule on a hostile population. Subjugating and oppressing them, what else could it be? Its not like they can be rejoined as a democratic nation, the last time they voted together, Yanukovych won. The war has to end at some point and the Ukrainian demand remains an impossible and unworkable one. If tomorrow Russia abruptly changed its mind, revoked its constitution, kicked out the DPR/LPR/Crimea and ceded them to Kyiv, what would happen? You'd still have a bitter ethnic Russian population who would never coexist with West Ukraine. Would the EU send in an occupying army and build internment camps to pacify them?

At any rate, Russia already seized most of the industry. There might be farmlands up for grab and the contested Zap and Kharkiv that Russia hopes to take if this conflict drags on for years, but like we saw last year in the land swaps proposal, they're willing to haggle for peace. They already got the lions share of what they actually wanted. If they had seized the whole of Ukraine in their blitz at the start, they'd have avoided this war of attrition but still been in the same position of trying to pacify a hostile population under occupation, and we can only speculate how that would have gone with the EU needling them and propping up a resistance.

The point of all this is, peace can actually work when the warring sides agree to keep to their sides and lay down their demands to take over the opponents they failed to defeat on a battlefield. And that's how wars end, either you win decisively or you seek terms.


Lyman and Kostyantynivka are in the process of being fully taken, this has become evident over last week or so. Together they allow the Russians to inch even closer to the twin cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk which are last real major hubs in Donetsk. If/when those fall i think this war will naturally peter out.

I just don't see how Ukraine would be able to mount any sort of push back to retake. The country realistically has 25-30MM while many of the young, rich and able bodied have fled. The human capital loss is extraordinary and is only being masked by massive western financial support. Their demographics pyramid is the worst in the world and even if the war ends today it's not recovering for many generations.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jun 22 2026 12:18pm
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Jun 22 2026 12:24pm
Lyman and Kostyantynivka are in the process of being fully taken, this has become evident over last week or so. Together they allow the Russians to inch even closer to the twin cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk which are last real major hubs in Donetsk. If/when those fall i think this war will naturally peter out.

I just don't see how Ukraine would be able to mount any sort of push back to retake. The country realistically has 25-30MM while many of the young, rich and able bodied have fled. The human capital loss is extraordinary and is only being masked by massive western financial support. Their demographics pyramid is the worst in the world and even if the war ends today it's not recovering for many generations.


a minor point of clarification. the term generations can mean 3 years, 7 years, 10 years or more. so when you say : "it's not recovering for many generations" are you referring to multiple 3 year periods, or decades (10-20-30 years+)
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Jun 22 2026 12:32pm
a minor point of clarification. the term generations can mean 3 years, 7 years, 10 years or more. so when you say : "it's not recovering for many generations" are you referring to multiple 3 year periods, or decades (10-20-30 years+)


Multiple decades. The population peaked at around ~53MM in 1993. I don't think they would be able to get back to that number even 50 years after the war has ended without significant immigration i.e. from India, Bangladesh, the usual places.
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Jun 22 2026 03:01pm
Multiple decades. The population peaked at around ~53MM in 1993. I don't think they would be able to get back to that number even 50 years after the war has ended without significant immigration i.e. from India, Bangladesh, the usual places.


yes ok t4i.

my country had a famine 200 years ago. We have still not gotten back to the population we had 200 years ago (8.1M) we are currently at 5.2M. We discussed the population of Ukraine before.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 22 2026 03:01pm
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