At that time, only one side (Iraq) was regularly attacking deep in the other's hinterland. Yes, Iran fired a few missiles on Bagdad, but the vast majority of their missile attacks went to Iraqi cities near the frontline. In the Ukraine war, both sides are currently dedicating a significant chunk of their missile and drone attacks on targets more than 300km behind the frontlines.






The Chechen wars were only getting started back then. Psychologically, that's imho a different situation from a war escalating in your own country after it had already been going on for more than 4 years, a war which your leadership called "a special military operation" and something which would only take a few months. Yes, the increased strikes in Moscow might make more Russians see this war as existential, or feel patriotic or enraged. At the same time, they make Putin and the Russian military leadership look mighty weak. And the Russian upper-middle class should be smart and educated enough to realize that their own country had been shelling Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities for the past couple of years. Just like they should be smart enough to understand that continued attacks to their own country's oil and gas infrastructure would inflict major economic damage and eventually decrease their own living standards.

If we know one thing from recent history, it's that sheltered and privileged middle classes tend to become soft and yielding in the face of hardship, preferring appeasement and foul compromises over seeking long-term solutions which come with short-term suffering. Will the Russian middle class really be that different, will they really start to support total war, or will many of them instead go "this is getting out of hand, let's stop pushing further and seek a peace agreement that enshrines our gains"?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 18 2026 03:34pm

I mean, I am referring to NATO and Russia, and while Ukraine may be viewed as indirect confrontation between NATO and Russia I am referring to an actual full fledged conflict between NATO proper and Russia.

What will ultimately happen with Ukraine territory wise, no crystal balls. But I suspect we see it concede some territory all goes quiet again and then you just have the threat of Russia Vs. NATO and we start stockpiling in the EU again, to the USA's benefit. How the EU will contend with energy needs going into the 2030's, that I am not sure. Lets see how long it takes until we see conflict spike in the Middle East, Israel after all seems displeased.

well i think we will see Nato forces on the battlefield. The EU and Russia position is that the conflict is existential.



Recent history, like the Israel conflict?

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 18 2026 03:39pm

Lol. Russia can't even beat Ukraine who uses leftover NATO arms. You really think Vlad wants a fight with all of NATO? Zero chance.



This post was edited by said_aouita on Jun 18 2026 04:31pm

where did i say that Russia wanted to go to war with Europe? I said the Ukraine conflict was existential for both Russia and Europe.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 18 2026 04:38pm

Ummmm..... You saying Europe will invade Russia? I bet China will invade Russia before Europe.

This post was edited by said_aouita on Jun 18 2026 04:47pm

Huh? I don't see how the Gaza War, or the wider Middle East conflict, fit into this pattern. For Israel, these wars are very clearly existential, so support is understandably higher than in other Western countries. That being said, I do indeed think that support for a two-state solution, or more broadly for a conciliatory stance toward the Palestinians, will poll highest amount Israel's upper middle class.

Those who are privileged tend to be soft, those who have a lot to lose tend to be risk-averse. I don't see a good reason why this logic shouldn't apply to Russia's middle class, too.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 18 2026 05:44pm

No I said Europe is preparing for war and Russia is preparing for an escalation. The Russian Army is in Ukraine.



You said: "If we know one thing from recent history, it's that sheltered and privileged middle classes tend to..." and I reference the recent history, i.e. the war in Israel. If you are now saying it does not fit, then which conflicts were you referring to when you said "if we know one thing from recent history". My point is that it is problematic when one uses a case as a source and conclusion, therefore I was simply asking for the recent history examples that you are referring to, which is not the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 18 2026 06:25pm

Another quality strike by the good guys.

Making someone look weak at the nation state level doesn't make them shrink away, in fact quiet the opposite it makes them more emboldened to escalate and not appear so, or risk internal strife/fracturing. Most Russians have generally been untouched by the war, life goes on as usual. Making it 'real' for normal Russians i don't think is a good idea for Ukraine. If this becomes a normal occurrence these normal Russians may say we want the government/armed forces to be more decisive and put an end to it... which means escalation, which means something decisive and probably not a net good for Ukraine or civilians in general.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jun 19 2026 10:16am