No real update on the war. After the (alleged) assassination attempt on Putin in December 2025, Russia-US relations soured, and Russia took a dim view on the prospects of a diplomatic solution. Requests from Zelensky for a face to face meeting with Putin were dismissed and Russia has in recent weeks outlined that its position has evolved again. It does not believe a diplomatic solution is achievable at this time and is instead prepared to pursue a military victory with a deadline of 2030. In the meantime Europe continues to arm itself in preparation for some 2030 deadline. All in all there is nothing positive here for anyone.

Well, Russian advances have grinded to a halt - just six months ago, it looked like an inevitability that the Ukrainian frontline would soon crumble.

For those rooting for Ukraine, this is surely a positive development. Likewise, Ukraine has been able to ramp up its attacks on Russian ports and refineries more and more.
The flip side, of course, is that Ukraine is also getting hammered worse and worse from air attacks.

All in all, I would say the situation is weird and unprecedented in military history: two combatants who cannot advance, yet retain the ability to bomb each other into oblivion.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 17 2026 05:59am

Huh, I hadn't heard of that one before. Thx for posting!

Still: in that tanker war, the targets were easily accessibly by sea. In the current Ukraine war, both sides are able to defend the frontline while they can't prevent strikes deep in their respective hinterland. Such a situation is indeed unusual.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 18 2026 02:18am

Mostly agree but there are some key pockets of movement.

Kostiantynivka is on the verge of falling. We’ve all seen in throughout this war, breakouts are not linear. Once fortresses fall subsequently you see a large swath of surrounding area falling as well.

This one may be a big deal.

https://x.com/suriyakmaps/status/2067561996157886626?s=46

When a strategically important fortress falls it's no longer strategically important. In any case it's a Pyrrhic victory.

Source: ISW

Thus, the conflict is now unequivocally transitioning into the Tanker War and the War of the Cities, with the frontlines mired in a state that Remarque once described, while ships and trucks are being destroyed with paranoid brutality. At night, neighboring and not-so-neighboring cities pummel each other with hundreds of shells and dozens of missiles, only to return to their everyday routines and mundane business by daylight. One can already venture a guess today as to how this will end (in nothing) and coin a catchy label for it: say, the War of Bots. Why that particular term? It serves both as a nod to drones and other automated systems, and as a reference to the propaganda battles waged across social media, where certain events are deliberately downplayed while others are thrust into the spotlight to divert public attention.

The easiest way for Putin to 'justify' ramping up strikes on Ukraine is images like these. The average Russian even the liberal Muscovite seeing Ukrainian drones slam into Moscow will feel some level of anger. Similar to the 1999 apartment building bombings that were then used as pretext for the Chechen war. I don’t think this means general mobilization but i certainly do think the response will be harsh.

https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067449379816902726?s=46

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jun 18 2026 11:23am

Im out of the loop, what has been Putin's response to the strikes in Russia's interior. I know there was the famous drones in shipping containers strikes, and the strikes on planes, etc. But did Putin ever shell Kiev or other targets with missiles after those?