you're just trying to twist my arguments to fit your narrative. i said specifically you wont be successful because you will invariably pull out of Gaza, i even said specifically you wont make it 10 years in a military occupation post war.
as to surrender its not about chasing down every militant in the mountains, its about the leadership will resume rearming them at the first opportunity. they're not in gaza, as you well know, and they can't be trusted, as you well know.
lets game it out.
war "ends" and occupation begins. israel will look to other nations to help rebuild and feed the people. a lot of aid will come from muslim nations, which will invariably have weapons and bomb materials hidden in them to try and arm guerilla forces in gaza. maybe israel finds 9 out of 10, or even 99 out of 100 caches. some slips in, fighters get it, attack occupation forces. death tolls will be low but blow up the press, costs of occupation will pile up over the years, eventually govt caves to pressure and pulls out just like in 2005. they try and set up some sort of new govt that is opposed to hamas and a puppet to israel. that govt is about as effective at fighting hamas as the US's puppets were in Iraq or Afghanistan. which is not effective at all. Israel enjoys a slight reprieve post-withdrawal, because infighting in Gaza is the focus and terrorist attacks are located there. Puppet govt invariably loses meaningful control, or gets hung in the street, Hamas or the same group under a new name retakes control of Gaza. then you're either in war again, or under threat again.
so you either get a war again, attacked again, or are under threat again. its just a matter of time. but please tell me about all of the guerilla insurgency groups the Allies had to fight in Germany or Japan post-ww2. please tell me about how the unconditional surrenders didn't hold. please tell me about the rich benefactors well out of reach of the allies that were bank rolling Germany and Japan. square the circle.
Let’s absolutely game this out, because your hypothetical timeline just laid out exactly why Israel cannot afford to repeat the catastrophic mistakes of the past.
You asked me to square the circle on three specific points regarding Germany, Japan, and insurgencies. Let's do exactly that:
You imply post-WWII Germany was peaceful from day one. It wasn't. The Allies had to aggressively suppress the 'Werwolf' movement a Nazi guerrilla insurgency intended to launch hit-and-run attacks against occupying forces. How did the Allies defeat them? Not by packing up and leaving because it got tough, but by maintaining a massive, unyielding military occupation, arresting collaborators, and imposing strict martial law until the population fully accepted that the old regime was never coming back.
Please tell me about the rich benefactors out of reach, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union heavily funded, armed, and backed communist insurgencies and terror factions across Europe (including Germany) to undermine Western democratic stability. The Allies didn't throw their hands up and declare victory 'impossible' just because Moscow was out of reach. They built a literal ironclad defense system, locked down the borders, and ruthlessly intercepted the flow of illicit weapons.
Your Timeline Proves My Entire Point, you claim that under a post-war occupation, aid will be smuggled, guerrilla attacks will happen, and Israel will eventually cave to international pressure and pull out leading right back to Hamas 2.0.
That is exactly why Israel cannot and will not do a standard political 'pullout' like 2005.
Your entire doom-loop scenario relies on the assumption that Israel will hand over security responsibility to an ineffective international force or a puppet government and walk away. But the entire lesson of October 7th is that Israel must maintain indefinite freedom of military operation and total security override from the borders and the sea.
When we talk about dismantling Hamas, we aren't talking about a magical transformation where every Gazan suddenly loves Israel. We are talking about destroying their capability to manufacture heavy rockets, dismantle their underground tunnels, and eliminate their industrial-scale military infrastructure.
If Iran tries to smuggle weapons inside aid, Israel will continue to control the entry points and intercept them. If a guerrilla cell forms and launches an attack, the IDF will step in and neutralize it immediately just like the IDF currently does in Area A of the West Bank, preventing it from ever scaling into a massive rocket-launching fortress.
You keep insisting the goal is delusional because it requires long-term, gritty security maintenance. It’s not delusional; it’s an existential requirement. The alternative you are advocating forgiving up on demilitarization because 'smuggling might happen' is just inviting a permanent cycle of massacres. Israel chooses to fight for its security, no matter how long it takes.