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Jun 3 2026 10:21am
Most trades aren't for people who need year round and continous employment.
Many of them are contract workers and have to deal with periods of slow work or no work at all. And when they do get work they still have to submit competitive bids otherwise they don't even get the work.

The ones that are full time, work for a company, get lowballed like hell on their wage offers. See those new hire welder video memes? It's a real thing.


Its also a very stupid comment in general. Go to the trades! Move to the countryside if the city is expensive! Dur.

That works as advice for an individual, if the mass amount of people go that route trades pay becomes less due to over saturation and rural just becomes expensive and that's what this thread is actually talking about, where do the masses start to find long-term employment.

Its very often people give that , pull up your bootstraps and move to the country advice without even remotely thinking about what would happen if that happened in actually masses.
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Jun 3 2026 10:49am
The math doesnt math. take all of the shortages in the trades, which are massive numbers, and add them together. its still a smaller number than the number of people forecast to lose jobs due to Ai and automation.

just as a quick example about 2 million people in the USA are semi drivers, and we're projected to be about 500k plumbers short by 2027.

as ive said for a long time telling a young man to get a trade is wonderful advice, and sets him up for success. telling all young men to get a trade just floods the market and reduces all trade people's pay. the system cant handle that many new tradesman even from a jobs perspective, let alone apprenticeships.


That would only be the case if the vast majority of young men were not too ruined by TV and video games to succeed in the trades. We hire dozens of people every year, almost none make it through a month, we find one guy every year or two that's worth training past a basic labor position.

The guy we got last year made over 100k, and now he's starting to blast and will be a good painter eventually if his attitude doesn't change. This guy represents less than 2% of the population that applies to work in trades. The shortage is not a shortage of people who want to be paid to pretend to work in trades, it's a shortage of people who are capable and willing to work hard enough to make it, and also with an attitude that is not going to bother everyone else too much.

But I do agree, if there was a massive change in the attitude of the average guy there wouldn't be enough jobs for everyone. That's unlikely. Teach your kids the value of competence and hard work and there's going to be a place for them.

I can't make myself care about a shortage of work for all of these healthy people who are only willing to do work suitable for seriously disabled guys.

This post was edited by Shadowoffury on Jun 3 2026 10:51am
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Jun 3 2026 11:05am
That would only be the case if the vast majority of young men were not too ruined by TV and video games to succeed in the trades. We hire dozens of people every year, almost none make it through a month, we find one guy every year or two that's worth training past a basic labor position.

The guy we got last year made over 100k, and now he's starting to blast and will be a good painter eventually if his attitude doesn't change. This guy represents less than 2% of the population that applies to work in trades. The shortage is not a shortage of people who want to be paid to pretend to work in trades, it's a shortage of people who are capable and willing to work hard enough to make it, and also with an attitude that is not going to bother everyone else too much.

But I do agree, if there was a massive change in the attitude of the average guy there wouldn't be enough jobs for everyone. That's unlikely. Teach your kids the value of competence and hard work and there's going to be a place for them.

I can't make myself care about a shortage of work for all of these healthy people who are only willing to do work suitable for seriously disabled guys.


i largely agree with the top portion of your post but the bottom is short sighted. its basically saying "i dont care if i some day live in a dystopian society because i'll be fine with my trades labor job". at some point being fine isn't enough if the society around you is crumbling. when 50-100 years from now "public education" is an AI generated instructor on an Ipad or worse a brain chip. when food is all lab made. you can do things to mitigate your exposure to these issues, but you or your family will still be surrounded by them. society is filled with sheep, it always has been and always will be. Incan priests weren't just lucky people placed in a position of power to lord over people who could take their place, they were blessed by god with the IQ to be in that position over people with an IQ too low to take their place. you must provide for the sheep or chaos ensues, society collapses.
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Jun 3 2026 07:20pm
i largely agree with the top portion of your post but the bottom is short sighted. its basically saying "i dont care if i some day live in a dystopian society because i'll be fine with my trades labor job". at some point being fine isn't enough if the society around you is crumbling. when 50-100 years from now "public education" is an AI generated instructor on an Ipad or worse a brain chip. when food is all lab made. you can do things to mitigate your exposure to these issues, but you or your family will still be surrounded by them. society is filled with sheep, it always has been and always will be. Incan priests weren't just lucky people placed in a position of power to lord over people who could take their place, they were blessed by god with the IQ to be in that position over people with an IQ too low to take their place. you must provide for the sheep or chaos ensues, society collapses.


50-100 years ago no one imagined that all the jobs that you're worried about disappearing would ever even exist. I hang out with 80-90 year old Scottish guys who are still angry at Margaret Thatcher for shutting down the coal mines. At the time a large majority of people there were saying the same sorts of things that you're saying now.

Same thing applies to the industrial revolution and every other era of major employment change in human history. Marxism is based on the idea that the industrial revolution was going to make the working class poorer... It actually ended up giving the working class lives more luxurious than those of kings in any preceding era. Now we're all mad that billionaires have private jets while we recline in La-z-boys in the exact temperature we prefer, being entertained all night by literally exactly what we want to see and eating whatever we want to eat regardless of season. It's god damned amazing what is going on right now compared to what was going on 100 years ago.

It turns out that we are not that good at predicting the future and never have been. Progress has always gone hand-in-hand with the expectation of chaos. The nature of work shifts, it does not disappear.

The only thing likely to change this is actual ai, not a search engine that we pretend is "learning" when all it is actually doing is refining search results. Every single bit of information that this thing is capable of presenting was written by a human being. The sky is not falling.
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Jun 3 2026 09:54pm
Luddite noises intensifying.





This post was edited by addone on Jun 3 2026 09:58pm
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Jun 4 2026 04:59am
The only thing likely to change this is actual ai, not a search engine that we pretend is "learning" when all it is actually doing is refining search results. Every single bit of information that this thing is capable of presenting was written by a human being. The sky is not falling.


Its all combinations of pretending to be intelligent, but for the low to medium difficulty inquiry or task, it's trivial for AI. The reality is for use-case specific business needs an engineer can rig an AI LLM, RAG, MCP, prompt dickery, and some tuning to replace a job specific human clerical task.


For the legal mind, wondering what kind of pickles business can get into with using chat bot to handle ALL customer service? Starlink was trying this, I had a dispute and they recommended I return my rented hardware. Bot didn't know I own it and was citing all sorts of nonsense terms and conditions for leased hardware. I still don't think a human ever reviewed it, guess you just pound sand when AI doesn't work

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Jun 4 2026 05:06am
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Jun 4 2026 09:34am
idk what this topic is really about but sounsd like people are sayin, THEY TOOKr JOBS!

AI cant do my job, im a tradesman. maybe in 50-100 years and by then i'll be dead and civilization will have already adapted to an AI workforce. depends on how fast technology develops.
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Jun 4 2026 10:01am
idk what this topic is really about but sounsd like people are sayin, THEY TOOKr JOBS!

AI cant do my job, im a tradesman. maybe in 50-100 years and by then i'll be dead and civilization will have already adapted to an AI workforce. depends on how fast technology develops.


It is a discussion of 50 years out. Its a discussion centered around kids and grandkids future, I myself predict a sort of UBI eventually where the wealth gap grows even larger and although work-time may be reduced, quality of life will decrease since no one seems interested on putting guardrails on anything, your UBI will cover basics if that and you will be taken to the cleaners at every opportunity. Gut consumer protection even further and start to really expolit basic necessities, power, water, food, etc.
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Jun 4 2026 12:36pm
I Moved to Silicon Valley in 2008. My very first impression of the Bay Area and the tech work force and venture capitalists in Palo Alto was that they are all soulless drones who care about nothing but money, wine and social hierarchy. Oh and they are all closet demon worshipers who like to have orgies with high school girls on molly. Seriously, we needed to drop a nuke on the Bay Area back in like 2012 to save our civilization but I’m afraid it’s too late now. These are the very people responsible for rigging elections, covid, and now ai taking over everything.
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Jun 4 2026 12:58pm
Learn a trade, you layabouts. If this garbage search engine "ai" can do your job, it should get your job. All those jobs are dehumanizing horse shit any way. Get your hands dirty and keep your conscience clean.

Tractors and every other type of machinery replaced a ton of jobs too. People back then also had all these dystopian visions of the future based on that. We just call it progress around here


It's not feasible for people like myself who are partially disabled. I still work, I'm not going to be one of those people for as long as I can, but I cannot do trades anymore like I used to befoee getting hurt.
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