The math doesnt math. take all of the shortages in the trades, which are massive numbers, and add them together. its still a smaller number than the number of people forecast to lose jobs due to Ai and automation.
just as a quick example about 2 million people in the USA are semi drivers, and we're projected to be about 500k plumbers short by 2027.
as ive said for a long time telling a young man to get a trade is wonderful advice, and sets him up for success. telling all young men to get a trade just floods the market and reduces all trade people's pay. the system cant handle that many new tradesman even from a jobs perspective, let alone apprenticeships.
That would only be the case if the vast majority of young men were not too ruined by TV and video games to succeed in the trades. We hire dozens of people every year, almost none make it through a month, we find one guy every year or two that's worth training past a basic labor position.
The guy we got last year made over 100k, and now he's starting to blast and will be a good painter eventually if his attitude doesn't change. This guy represents less than 2% of the population that applies to work in trades. The shortage is not a shortage of people who want to be paid to pretend to work in trades, it's a shortage of people who are capable and willing to work hard enough to make it, and also with an attitude that is not going to bother everyone else too much.
But I do agree, if there was a massive change in the attitude of the average guy there wouldn't be enough jobs for everyone. That's unlikely. Teach your kids the value of competence and hard work and there's going to be a place for them.
I can't make myself care about a shortage of work for all of these healthy people who are only willing to do work suitable for seriously disabled guys.
This post was edited by Shadowoffury on Jun 3 2026 10:51am