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May 22 2026 10:38pm
Round two?


China can send Iran all the drones and missiles they want too. Production Output: By total unit volume and raw manufacturing capability, China's production capacity for items like missiles, drones, and armored vehicles is higher than the aggregate output of the NATO alliance.

So when Trump says he destroyed Iran's capabilities to manufacture drones and missiles ..it means nothing !! The Caspian Sea is bounded by exactly five countries: Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan... China can easily get stuff to Iran .. trans-Eurasian rail and shipping corridors, allowing them to bypass maritime blockades

We cannot win this war ..Trump is a idiot and is presuming all of us are idiots .. ^_^
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May 22 2026 11:16pm
I have a bad feeling tonight.... like war premonitions



edit:



Flights are avoiding Iranian Airspace


This post was edited by KillerAngel on May 22 2026 11:24pm
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May 23 2026 12:28pm
Hopeful

Quote
BREAKING: A Pakistani security official says a "Memorandum of Understanding" is being "fine-tuned" to potentially end the Iran War.

The Pakistani security official was briefed on the Pakistani army chief’s visit to Iran and his meetings with Iranian leaders.

The visit has made "significant progress" toward ending the war, he says.

Additionally, two Pakistani sources involved in negotiations said the deal being negotiated is "fairly comprehensive to terminate the war," per Reuters.


https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2058252892008513895?s=46


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May 27 2026 10:18am
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May 29 2026 09:44am
Blockade is getting lifted and there’s details that as part of the peace deal Iran will get 300bn for reconstruction.

Holy shit did they fumble this. Worse than Afghanistan? Iran is going to be left in a materially stronger position, with an implicit understanding that at any time they can shutdown Hormuz at will. We went from regime change to them being de facto crowned as a regional power.

I don’t know how anyone can look at this as other than a US geopolitical L. Anyone disagrees?


https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2060349187242246225?s=46

This post was edited by ofthevoid on May 29 2026 09:45am
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May 29 2026 10:23am
Blockade is getting lifted and there’s details that as part of the peace deal Iran will get 300bn for reconstruction.

Holy shit did they fumble this. Worse than Afghanistan? Iran is going to be left in a materially stronger position, with an implicit understanding that at any time they can shutdown Hormuz at will. We went from regime change to them being de facto crowned as a regional power.

I don’t know how anyone can look at this as other than a US geopolitical L. Anyone disagrees?


https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2060349187242246225?s=46


50-100 million voters in the US will call this a win because he "got peace without losing a bunch of american lives".

this is a disaster far worse than afghanistan imo. likely worse than Iraq. far better in lives, but far worse outcome geopolitically.
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May 29 2026 10:51am
50-100 million voters in the US will call this a win because he "got peace without losing a bunch of american lives".

this is a disaster far worse than afghanistan imo. likely worse than Iraq. far better in lives, but far worse outcome geopolitically.


Which is partially true, but something that could of been just the same without starting the war to begin with that caused oil and fertilizer prices to moon.

Even if they give up most of their enriched uranium, to me that's not that major. They have the know-how and if they ever wanted to kick back up the enrichment they will retain that capacity.

I'm not sure how Israel looks at the outcome on the horizon and isn't thinking this is pretty bad.
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May 29 2026 11:11am
And will prices fall back for consumers to their pre-war pricing if oil stabilizes, absolutely not. Perhaps a small decrease, but food, consumer products, building materials, etc. will all stay at a higher price. Or there will be a new excuse to continue to use the line increase in price due to "market conditions". Record profits and margins though by the way.
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May 29 2026 11:13am
Which is partially true, but something that could of been just the same without starting the war to begin with that caused oil and fertilizer prices to moon.

Even if they give up most of their enriched uranium, to me that's not that major. They have the know-how and if they ever wanted to kick back up the enrichment they will retain that capacity.

I'm not sure how Israel looks at the outcome on the horizon and isn't thinking this is pretty bad.


Correct, he ended a war unsuccessfully that he started.

On the israel side it seems most plausible to me that they just wildly miscalculated how the war would go. Israel likely thought they could pressure us to join by simply telling us our targets would be at risk once they struck. thats as far as they got correct. They likely thought that Trump would then respond to damaged bases and bombed allies far more harshly. Not with nuclear, but with more. Maybe Netanyahu even got gassed up by Trump about our missile stockpiles with false numbers, Trump loves to exaggerate. They likely also thought Trump would commit to ground troops to more severely take out missile platforms and even potentially topple the regime quickly. basically i think in their calculus they hoped for it to become a Syria like failed state. they im sure knew we wouldnt occupy. But if it was broken enough they'd get a LOT of legroom. honestly they dont fear nuclear weapons, and never really have, thats always been a red herring.

so trump and the israelis failed to predict pretty much anything beyond the first few days. Hormuz is just one of several miscalculations. They only got like 10-30% of the missile platforms, and none of the major manufacturing sites. They're likely at or near pre-war levels of missile stockpiles and still have many platforms with which to launch them. we took out a navy that they didnt even care about and they never had a real air force. so even our "wins" are moot.
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May 29 2026 11:22am
And will prices fall back for consumers to their pre-war pricing if oil stabilizes, absolutely not. Perhaps a small decrease, but food, consumer products, building materials, etc. will all stay at a higher price. Or there will be a new excuse to continue to use the line increase in price due to "market conditions". Record profits and margins though by the way.


I doubt this happens in 2026. I think we have a new structural floor in oil at $80/brent higher than pre-war range of $60-70. The only reason oil isn't a lot higher 1. Bessant shorting near month futures and 2. Global SPR releases.

A 'truer' price for oil is looking at dated brent (basically physical settle) with the May contract at ~108 and June at $95 and the future curve shows above $80 until May of 2027.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/european-dated-brent-swap-futures.html

We ain't getting under $3 at the pump for a long time, maybe only if we get recession.
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