Yeah. His estimates, and those made by American leaders in the past several decades, have been fairly accurate as far as I've seen.
What you're not understanding is that these estimates are not predictions of when Iran will have nuclear weapons. These estimates are on nuclear latency.
Every country that does not possess nuclear weapons has a measurable nuclear latency. I don't know what it is for Canada but assuming it's 3 years, that means Canada is 3 years from nuclear weapons. This does not imply that Canada will have nuclear weapons in three years. It means they could if they decided to, and if no one intervened.
Iran's nuclear latency has varied wildly over the past few decades for various reasons. Obama's intent with JCPOA was to bring Iran's nuclear latency back up to one year and keep it there. This worked for 5 years.
From 2016 to 2021 Iran was one year from nuclear weapons and this was considered a win. I mean it was much better than nothing, but it still isn't a great result. In 2021 they started enriching heavily and their nuclear latency shrunk until it was a matter of weeks, but they were staying at that point. They were consistently weeks away from nuclear weapons for a few years.
Hopefully you can understand the concept now.
This post was edited by Shadowoffury on Mar 21 2026 08:30pm