Iran cannot replace its bombs while it is actively being bombed. Israel is not going to invade, Israel only has a population of 9 million. Iran has 90 million. Israel does not have bigger bombs, but it has Nukes. The US is not going to put an army on the ground either.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 18 2026 08:34am

i agree with this post except the bold. Iran will have a really hard time reproducing planes, large ships, building missile launch platforms, etc. But missiles as they build them aren't exactly complicated, they dont make top notch smart missiles, they make point and shoot tubes with only minor guidance.

and the current landscape helps that a LOT. look at the main targets, Tel Aviv, Straight of Hormuz ships, regional energy targets, and US military bases. The only thing that really requires precision is ships in the straight, and currently there is no travel there. Tel Aviv they can just shell indiscriminately, same for bases, same for large energy plants. Launch 5 missiles at a gas plant and hope 1 hits, if it does, the whole plant is shut down.

rest assured they're making missiles now, they've given up all hopes of naval battles and shifted to small vehicles, they have given total air superiority to US/Israel. but they will continue to launch missiles at a faster rate than we can intercept them, and they'll use drone attacks as well. They're a porcupine now, we can only change the dynamic with extreme force. Either we blow up the porcupine or we get stung by it's quills.

Iran can block the Straight of Hormuz indefinitely. It does not even need to sink a single ship. The reality is that trust has been broken and the fear of being sunk outweighs everything. The economic consequences are here for the short term (months-years is my definition of short term). A minor clarification - the US and Israel are the aggressors here, and, using your metaphor, if you leave the porcupine alone you wont get stung, but if you do get stung its your own fault for trying to kill the porcupine. You went into his house, killed mammy and daddy and killed the babies. Pretty sure the remaining sons are not happy. Iran is a problematic regime, but I have not seen anything by the US or Israel to credibly change its outlook on the world, in fact I would say the war on Iran is similar to everywhere the US goes - the US is undermining the world's trust in it.

There are several scenario's at this point:
1. In the next 3-4 weeks the US says jobs done and stops bombing
2. The US continues to bomb Iran all year
3. The US sends troops, 300,000+ to invade Iran

Options 2 and 3 do not enable Trump to invade Cuba this year, but it can be quite difficult to extricate from an active war. Iran is likely to try to sting the US where it hurts - money/oil, and if the US continues to escalate then all bets are off.

Understand I am not talking about how we got here re: the 1950's Iran, the Shah, the Proxies around Israel, Oct 7th, I am looking at what is in front of me and making an assessment based on what is happening in the last couple of weeks.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 18 2026 10:11am

i agree almost entirely, but would add an invasion of Cuba is unlikely. their entire power grid is down, if any country is poised to surrender without a fight it's Cuba at the moment. they have weeks, maybe, before even emergency power to things like hospitals run out. personally i find the entire topic of cuba to be silly.

Cuba is a failed state, with no credible allies. its not Greenland, it has no association with Nato. The US has sanctioned it for decades and Cubans have, where possible, left. The topic of Cuba is not silly, its sad. TLDR, Cuba is a low hanging fruit, The US destroyed it over the last number of decades; Donald Trump just needs to figure out what he wants to do with Iran, sooner rather then later.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 18 2026 10:40am

it's silly in the US expansion for the reason your listed. no allies, no prospects, failed state, fleeing population, etc. what is the upside? eliminate a "socialist" regime nearby us? stop cuban immigration? spending even a single dollar on Cuba's downfall is a waste of a dollar. MAYBE, and its a big maybe, we get a western friendly new regime then we invest bigly into the nation to raise it up to the point they can potentially repay us. its a pure optics play for neocons and cuban nationals here in the USA. doesnt shift anything for midterms even if we "win".

i dont see how on earth you could come to that conclusion but to each their own !

1. The U.S aid is like 1% of our GDP
2. There is no Genocide.
3. Epstein as nothing to do with Israel
4. Qatarson is funded by Qatar.
5. Israel didnt push the US into the war.
6. Jewish communities in the US doesnt support palestinians there are few fringe examples but they always were there.
7. We cant steal land that belong to us.
8. Israel doesnt occupy Gaza.
9. Its complete BS that 25% of jews want to leave Israel.
10. We are not being hit badly Bs
Salem Barahmeh is a prominent Palestinian political activist, storyteller, and filmmaker who is currently the Founder and Executive Director of Uncivilized Media.

Weird you would say Israel didn't push us into the war when Lindsay Graham admitted he went to Israel several times and got info from Mossad on how to get trump into the war.

And Rubio just straight up said that Israel was going to attack and we were going to get dragged into it as their ally.

Kinda hard to argue against the words of the administration on this one.