My dad disagreed with my take; he’s convinced they’re already going all-out, pointing to how they’re lashing out at neighboring countries as proof of their desperation.
I think there’s an element of truth in both takes. Iran clearly isn’t fighting at full do-or-die levels—if this were truly existential, we’d likely see far more extreme and unconventional forms of escalation.
Quite frankly, it seems like Iran has adopted a strategy of making the conflict as costly as possible for its adversaries and the wider global system, particularly in financial terms, while hunkering down and trying to weather the storm. Given its ideological framing of the US and the dollar, there’s an internal logic to targeting what it sees as the foundation of its opponents’... "evil" culture - money and oil.
That said, I’m not convinced it’s an especially effective strategy. It feels strategically unfocused—imposing costs in a diffuse way without actually shifting the balance of power or improving Iran’s long-term position. It may create short-term economic disruption, but it’s unlikely to fundamentally alter the trajectory of the conflict or secure a better outcome for Iran. Iran needs allies and nothing it has done enables that. Closing the door on options to my mind is just stupid.
At the same time, the regional strikes and broader responses show they’re not exactly holding back either. It feels more like calibrated escalation: pushing hard enough to impose costs and signal capability, but stopping short of anything that would trigger a truly overwhelming response from the US or Israel (who WOULD respond with overwhelming force if Iran did succeed in a mass casualty event). In a way its quite similar to how the US waged the war in Ukraine against Russia - push as hard as they can, tanks, F16's, long range missiles, deep strikes - without provoking a nuclear response from Russia. When a nuclear response was imminent, (with Russia signalling it was going to Nuke Ukraine) the US pulled back. The fact that Ukraine is not happy that the US pulled back is morbidly humorous.
This conflict began 3 weeks ago. We will know alot more in about 3 weeks time. But Israel should be quiet comfortable that Iran will not do anything drastic - unless something drastic happens to undermine the state of Iran. This is also the fundamental problem - what does Benjamin want, or rather, what will Benjamin do, to Iran. This is his last chance to do something before he retires.
This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 18 2026 04:47am