Honest assessment of trumps call to reinsure or protect the movement through Hormuz . It’s an operational nightmare.
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If Trump is going to individually escort tankers through the strait, you're talking about an enormously expensive operation which requires many ships as well as tight air support
Even a single inexpensive aerial or naval drone can cause extensive damage to a tanker worth tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. Protecting these ships requires overkill. The Houthis during the Red Sea conflict were able to dramatically reduce the number of ships sailing through. Unlike the Red Sea conflict, where ships could take the longer route around the South Africa, there are few other paths to exporting oil and petrochemical products from the Persian Gulf.
The US Navy and Air Force attempted to suppress Houthi interference in Red Sea shipping. In the several years that the Red Sea has been partially blocked, throughput has remained at less than half of pre-conflict levels, with many episodes where throughput dropped to near zero. The houthis were able to score direct hits on many ships. Us soldiers and assets were also lost. And this was not against Iran, this was against the Houthis, who do not have the indigenous weapons platform production that Iran has. The Houthis were completely dependent on their pre-conflict storage of weapons and whatever Iran could smuggle to them. And yet, even this faction in one of the poorest countries on earth was able to dramatically impact global maritime flows.
The setup with Iran is exponentially more dangerous. Iran doesn't simply need to attack tankers. And the United States doesn't just need to protect tankers. The United States has to protect all of the upstream energy producing assets that fill those tankers as well. They need to protect the pipelines, the refineries, the petrochemical plants, the storage tanks. And these assets need not only be attacked by drones and missiles. They are easily sabotaged with even a simple wrench. A hand grenade or shoulder-fired weapon at close proximity in exactly the right location can take out an entire oil refinery. Not to mention much more vulnerable assets such as gas production. Thousands of miles of desert pipelines can be sabotaged with a tool as simple as a drill, obtainable from any hardware store.
The cost of protecting each cargo coming out of the Persian Gulf may exceed the total value of the cargo. Not to mention that it puts us ships directly within close proximity of Iranian weapons that can destroy them. The US largely abandoned this escort strategy during the Red Sea conflict. In fact, an entire coalition of US and European naval forces along with Gulf States attempted this against the houthis. The campaign was an utter failure and the ultimate conclusion from US military leadership was that it was much better risk reward to focus on suppressing strike capability. Yet after months of airstrikes Red Sea traffic never fully returned. Attacks continued.
The Trump administration has expressed its intent in not only protecting these cargos but also in artificially manipulating their prices lower. Trump is working against the laws of physics, sound military doctrine, and fundamental economics.
This entire adventure was poorly thought out and calls the entire Islamic world to jihad against America. Trump's attempts to protect the Persian Gulf will result in failure.