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#941
Dec 15 2025 07:22am
Quote (Goomshill @ Dec 14 2025 09:23pm)
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-berlin-talks-zelenskyy-05c363add7a4a3583f3beada7b1fb775

I can definitely see a near future peace deal being agreed along the path we're headed right now
Zelensky is saying that UA can accept a binding no-NATO pledge, and still pushing back against ceding more territory than status quo
Its definitely something Russia could embrace. The remaining Donbas really isn't that important in the grand scheme, the DMZ would cut into more Russian land but its not critical resource land
I mean Russia could just say okay, freeze along current lines, we'll build "our half of a DMZ" along it and Ukraine can choose whether or not to fortify its side

I think we're really not far off now from UA and RU agreeing to the same terms, which aren't far off the original 28 point plan at all.


This last effort by both sides to push into key territory could also be indicative of a peace on the horizon. If the territorial reality as part of the peace deal that basically who holds what gets to keep, then the incentive is to rush before that's set in stone to take. Russia in the Donbas and Zap, Ukraine clawing back some territory in Kharkov.
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#942
Dec 15 2025 08:07am
Quote (ofthevoid @ 15 Dec 2025 16:22)
This last effort by both sides to push into key territory could also be indicative of a peace on the horizon. If the territorial reality as part of the peace deal that basically who holds what gets to keep, then the incentive is to rush before that's set in stone to take. Russia in the Donbas and Zap, Ukraine clawing back some territory in Kharkov.


Alternatively, these are concessions that the domestic population will perceive more favorably than an actual loss of territory. Donbas, possibly Kherson and Zaporizhzhia- to Russia; Kharkiv and Sumy- to Ukraine.
So now people are dying not entirely in vain (that was already the case before), but simply to give the two leaders a chance to save face. A perfect time for a Christmas truce, a la the First World War.
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#943
Dec 15 2025 08:33am
Quote (Goomshill @ Dec 15 2025 12:51pm)
Also very worth pointing out: Ukraine is now accepting a position weaker than it was offered by Russia in the Istanbul deal. As long as they were sticking to NATO membership peace was out of reach, but now they're losing more territory and giving more concessions than if they hadn't fought at all


pretty sure Boris and Co. are not worried about blowback. But again, what we have to remember here is that Ukraine and the EU will have grudge from this so well, trouble brewing.

This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 15 2025 08:34am
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#944
Dec 15 2025 10:51am
UA forces recovered some Gerans showing AtA missiles strapped to the top. In effect some of the cloud of otherwise decoy and weak payload drones sent alongside the major strikes, also can have a hidden missile to shoot down jets/copters trying to intercept drones. Its just a whole regular ass AtA missile sitting on top of the drone where you cant see it from the ground, ready for the remote pilot to fire it off
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#945
Dec 15 2025 02:46pm
Quote (Norlander @ Dec 15 2025 09:07am)
Alternatively, these are concessions that the domestic population will perceive more favorably than an actual loss of territory. Donbas, possibly Kherson and Zaporizhzhia- to Russia; Kharkiv and Sumy- to Ukraine.
So now people are dying not entirely in vain (that was already the case before), but simply to give the two leaders a chance to save face. A perfect time for a Christmas truce, a la the First World War.


I mean there's a dual campaign happening. In parallel to the one producing corpses there's another one which is managing the public image. Imagine the war ends in 3 weeks, but before that Zelensky releases a heroic photo at the entrance of Kupiansk while simultaneously Ukrainian troops heroicly push the Russians out. It's that last haymaker landing right before the bell in the final round. People remember it. I remember watching Sluga Naroda back in the day and i have to say it was a very solid TV show. I don't know how good of a war chief Zelensky is but he understands optics and framing.
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#946
Dec 15 2025 05:39pm
western media being western media:

Tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of central Budapest on Saturday, marching to Prime Minister Viktor Orban's offices demanding his resignation over alleged child abuse in state-run juvenile institutions. The protesters, seen carrying soft toys and torches, were led by Orban's main challenger, Peter Magyar, who held a banner that said: "Let's protect children." The protesters walked across the Danube River, with many heading towards Orban's offices on Castle Hill. "Normally a government would be toppled after a case like this," one protester told AFP news agency. "For them, the problem is not that the abuses happened, but that they were revealed."
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#947
Dec 15 2025 07:25pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 15 Dec 2025 13:51)
Also very worth pointing out: Ukraine is now accepting a position weaker than it was offered by Russia in the Istanbul deal. As long as they were sticking to NATO membership peace was out of reach, but now they're losing more territory and giving more concessions than if they hadn't fought at all


The Istanbul deal had skirted territorial questions and contained a provision obligating Ukraine's Western partners to go to war against Russia if they invaded again - without consulting with said Western partners, who as we all know never had any intentions of committing this way.

https://www.intellinews.com/fresh-evidence-suggests-that-the-april-2022-istanbul-peace-deal-to-end-the-war-in-ukraine-was-stillborn-321468/



Quote (ferdia @ 15 Dec 2025 11:15)
still its noteworthy to see that No Nato is on the doorstep, a great leap in the thread from the early days when certain people were saying it had nothing to do with Nato. i will have to read some of the older posts...


Nobody said that Nato had nothing to do with this war. What I (and perhaps a few other posters) reject is the notion that the prospect of Ukraine in NATO is the sole or vastly predominant reason for this war.
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#948
Dec 16 2025 01:55am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 16 2025 01:25am)
The Istanbul deal had skirted territorial questions and contained a provision obligating Ukraine's Western partners to go to war against Russia if they invaded again - without consulting with said Western partners, who as we all know never had any intentions of committing this way.

https://www.intellinews.com/fresh-evidence-suggests-that-the-april-2022-istanbul-peace-deal-to-end-the-war-in-ukraine-was-stillborn-321468/





Nobody said that Nato had nothing to do with this war. What I (and perhaps a few other posters) reject is the notion that the prospect of Ukraine in NATO is the sole or vastly predominant reason for this war.


ehhh im pretty sure a few people said a few things about Nato! i was not talking about you...
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#949
Dec 16 2025 07:38am
Hopefully will have a peace agreement soon and hopefully both sides will respect the terms.
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#950
Dec 16 2025 07:41am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 15 2025 07:25pm)
Nobody said that Nato had nothing to do with this war. What I (and perhaps a few other posters) reject is the notion that the prospect of Ukraine in NATO is the sole or vastly predominant reason for this war.


Where would you rank it? It seems to me obvious the #1 proximate reason for Russia's invasion was western intrusion their sphere of influence via color revolution. NATO expansion is not exactly that, but they are intrinisically tied. Russia tolerated the fall of buffer states at the fringes of the old USSR and where the iron curtain expanded post WW2 but they were not going to part with their historical breadbasket, a country half russian and in the empire since Catherine.

Russia cares about stopping NATO for that seem reason, preserving its sphere. They aren't worried about some imminent ground invasion by NATO troops
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