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Dec 5 2025 05:16am
I think we agree on most points.

Only difference is that I believe that this conflict could suddenly / unexpectedly end with a decisive Russian victory because they're only getting stronger, Ukraine weaker, the US is pulling out and the EU is in a bad place financially.


lets tease it out. Russia has a decisive victory and every soldier in Ukraine is dead.

what happens next? and then? and then? and then? maybe 5 years after the war, which Russia won, what of Ukraine? what is its position towards Russia? does Ukraine still exist? what does it look like?

Ukraine is too big for Russia to "conquer".

This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 5 2025 05:22am
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Dec 5 2025 06:03am
lets tease it out. Russia has a decisive victory and every soldier in Ukraine is dead.

what happens next? and then? and then? and then? maybe 5 years after the war, which Russia won, what of Ukraine? what is its position towards Russia? does Ukraine still exist? what does it look like?

Ukraine is too big for Russia to "conquer".


I fully agree it doesn't look good for Ukraine.

This is why I said in my previous posts that they should accept a peace deal on Russia's terms, it only gets worse the longer this drags on.

Will they eventually lose the Dnieper river? The Black Sea coast? Those are the juicy bits Russia most likely wants to conquer.
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Dec 5 2025 06:08am
I fully agree it doesn't look good for Ukraine.

This is why I said in my previous posts that they should accept a peace deal on Russia's terms, it only gets worse the longer this drags on.

Will they eventually lose the Dnieper river? The Black Sea coast? Those are the juicy bits Russia most likely wants to conquer.


they will lose the Dneiper river, and the Black Sera coast.

yes, and then what? do you understand what i am trying to say Djunior? Ukraine can "lose" a battle, it can "lose" a war, but it can not be subsumed into Russia, its population is simply too high and Russia is the US. it will not bring total war to Ukraine.

This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 5 2025 06:18am
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Dec 5 2025 06:24am
they will lose the Dneiper river, and the Black Sera coast.

yes, and then what? do you understand what i am trying to say Djunior? Ukraine can "lose" a battle, it can "lose" a war, but it can not be subsumed into Russia.


With no acceptance as part of NATO nor EU think Ukraine will collapse, might take longer for that to happen but it will at one point.
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Dec 5 2025 07:42am
they will lose the Dneiper river, and the Black Sera coast.

yes, and then what? do you understand what i am trying to say Djunior? Ukraine can "lose" a battle, it can "lose" a war, but it can not be subsumed into Russia, its population is simply too high and Russia is the US. it will not bring total war to Ukraine.


In that case the Dnieper will become the new iron curtain along with the Black Sea coast.

Plus a large enough buffer zone / mine fields / pillboxes / trenches and what not to blunt whatever Ukraine throws at it.

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Dec 5 2025 07:49am
In that case the Dnieper will become the new iron curtain along with the Black Sea coast.

Plus a large enough buffer zone / mine fields / pillboxes / trenches and what not to blunt whatever Ukraine throws at it.


yes. that is what i expect to happen, and otherwise we will see ww3.
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Dec 5 2025 07:57am
yes. that is what i expect to happen, and otherwise we will see ww3.


Start of WW3 equals with nothing anymore to see :cry: but I'm pretty sure it's not going to happen, maybe at a way later time.
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Dec 5 2025 08:15am
Start of WW3 equals with nothing anymore to see :cry: but I'm pretty sure it's not going to happen, maybe at a way later time.


The EU today functions much like a large bank with heavy compliance layers. Twenty years ago, you could submit a mortgage, have it assessed, approved, conditions issued, and funds released in a day — a chain of 4–5 people. Now, the workflow is fragmented across committees, auditors, regulators, and multiple approval gates. Every step is procedural rather than discretionary, so throughput slows from days to months.

The same dynamic applies politically and militarily. Decision‑making is process‑bound rather than outcome‑driven. Common sense takes a back seat to documentation, consensus building, legal frameworks, and procedural justification. Policy triggers define actions more than context. In a fast-moving scenario, the system can keep moving along the predefined track — even if that track is heading straight for the metaphorical iceberg.

It’s not that anyone wants escalation; it’s that a bureaucracy like this has a very hard time adjusting quickly. They probably have flow charts with all sorts of responses — but “de‑escalate” is rarely one of them.

The more I think about it, the EU is like a big bank competing with another big bank — Russia. Staff aren’t allowed to talk to the other bank: no collusion, no price fixing, no secrets handed over, always strict competition. That’s how policy works internally, and in fast-moving crises, it makes flexibility even harder when you’re dealing with institutionalized narrow-mindedness



This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 5 2025 08:43am
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Dec 5 2025 09:55am
The EU today functions much like a large bank with heavy compliance layers. Twenty years ago, you could submit a mortgage, have it assessed, approved, conditions issued, and funds released in a day — a chain of 4–5 people. Now, the workflow is fragmented across committees, auditors, regulators, and multiple approval gates. Every step is procedural rather than discretionary, so throughput slows from days to months.

The same dynamic applies politically and militarily. Decision‑making is process‑bound rather than outcome‑driven. Common sense takes a back seat to documentation, consensus building, legal frameworks, and procedural justification. Policy triggers define actions more than context. In a fast-moving scenario, the system can keep moving along the predefined track — even if that track is heading straight for the metaphorical iceberg.

It’s not that anyone wants escalation; it’s that a bureaucracy like this has a very hard time adjusting quickly. They probably have flow charts with all sorts of responses — but “de‑escalate” is rarely one of them.

The more I think about it, the EU is like a big bank competing with another big bank — Russia. Staff aren’t allowed to talk to the other bank: no collusion, no price fixing, no secrets handed over, always strict competition. That’s how policy works internally, and in fast-moving crises, it makes flexibility even harder when you’re dealing with institutionalized narrow-mindedness

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVdvx7nwWtY


Your vid @6:50, I posted that De Wever statement a couple weeks ago. He made completely logical and reasonable requests that if the EU was going to press on with this plan all EU member states should share the responsibility if it went wrong. Only Germany was willing to do that.

The Belgian PM is now being called a Russian asset by Politico, Dec 4 article --> https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-russia-bart-de-wever-moscow-funds-brussels-bank-ukraine-war/

This is worse than institutionalized narrow-mindedness it's beyond logic, beyond reason. Unreal

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Dec 5 2025 10:12am
Your vid @6:50, I posted that De Wever statement a couple weeks ago. He made completely logical and reasonable requests that if the EU was going to press on with this plan all EU member states should share the responsibility if it went wrong. Only Germany was willing to do that.

The Belgian PM is now being called a Russian asset by Politico, Dec 4 article --> https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-russia-bart-de-wever-moscow-funds-brussels-bank-ukraine-war/

This is worse than institutionalized narrow-mindedness it's beyond logic, beyond reason. Unreal

https://i.imgur.com/7o2S4m4.jpeg


Its very much like Israel (i know you dont talk about that conflict) you have to be 100% committed, and you cannot question what they do, even if you are a friend, actually, if you are a friend, and you question something? its worse, your now an anti-semite. its complete vitriol. Belgium, Belgium is the bad guy because it has a doubt "maybe stealing is wrong? what if we get caught?"



This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 5 2025 10:35am
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