Subtract refugees, that's about ten millions total, subtract losses, subtract deserters, subtract tictok warriors. Only women, the elderly, children, and the disabled will be left to fight. Besides, officials will flee first with their families, as it already happened in 2022. Only now, it won't be 100,000 of which 40, 000 went to Kiev, but a million, plus mobilization, and total mobilization at that, in 2026- this is more of a cruel reality than an extreme measure.

This post was edited by Norlander on Dec 4 2025 10:24am

let me put it another way:

if the entire ukrainian army collapses. if the army has lost. if defeated. then -> russia controls all of eastern ukraine.
but western ukraine will still exist and persist and will wage future wars to reclaim what it lost.

we are looking at a conflict that is going to go on for years.

This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 4 2025 10:42am

That could happen but Russia will then be forced to retaliate and might consider moving further to take Ukraine out of the fight.

I hope all parties realize that a solid peace deal with security guarantees for both sides is the only real option

Who wants to make a bet Azov will murder Zelensky in a false flag to blame Russians and make him a martyr?

It is going to take years Djunior.

How can there be a peace deal? A lasting peace deal, not one for resupply. Ukraine and Europe refuse to negotiate. Are we supposed to trust the US? how did that go back in 2022? Oh ye, Russia invaded. sec let me pull something up:

You’re focusing almost entirely on battlefield strength and Western funding, but you’re missing the central point: Russia does not need, and has shown no interest, in conquering all of Ukraine. If Russia takes the east and the Ukrainian army collapses, a western rump state still exists. 39 million people is not something Moscow could occupy or pacify without creating an Afghanistan × Iraq × Chechnya nightmare. They’d face endless insurgency, partisan attacks, and NATO-backed sabotage. It would absorb men and money indefinitely — that defeats Russia’s strategic goal of secure borders, not strengthen it.

So what does "Ukraine cannot hold out" really mean? Holding what? Moscow is already destroying infrastructure and grinding manpower, it is literally firing ballistic missiles each week at Ukraine yet Kyiv still exists. Even a total military collapse doesn’t end the conflict , it just freezes it temporarily while the west re-arms and reopens hostilities later. That’s why this war can last years: not because Ukraine is strong, but because Russia isn’t trying to eliminate Ukraine entirely.

And here’s the bigger problem: there is no credible peace path. In 2021 Germany/France proposed a summit with Russia — Poland and the Baltic states vetoed it. After Minsk II, Kyiv refused to negotiate Crimea/Donbas status. Today EU/Ukrainian elites openly state they won’t negotiate until Russia withdraws — which Moscow will never accept. So even if Russia wins on the battlefield, what next? There is no negotiation mechanism, just as in 2021 — and that led straight into war. The same logic applies now. A peace deal is only realistic if both sides negotiate, yet the EU and Ukraine position is “no talks, only weapons and war,”. Ukraine’s red line (return of all territory including Crimea) is unattainable militarily.

You say funding will dry up. I agree. But that wont change the fact that millions of people are on the ground and willing fight, with europe cheering them on from the stands.

This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 4 2025 11:44am

The Russians win and the Ukrainians lose. It has already taken years that's not the point.

The almighty US lost the Vietnam war after throwing everything they had at it from napalm to dioxins. They eventually signed a peace deal.

History will repeat itself like it always does

is it OK if i dont hold my breath for this? Your right history repeats itself. sure a peace deal, but it wont be worth the paper its written on. when. in 2025? do you really think thats going to happen? its all a facade right now.

Look at the Israel situation "peace deal" i mean come on...

This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 4 2025 12:06pm

Looks like Israel decided the only option is to take the Palestinians out of the fight (not gonna make more comments on this).

If the EU persists and keeps funding Ukraine then Russia will be forced to take Ukraine out of the fight so it could get really ugly as in the other conflict mentioned.

true, i can concede this point. i think europe will feel threatened by war on its border, i.e. in western ukraine. its some years away so ye, we will have to see.

I think we agree on most points.

Only difference is that I believe that this conflict could suddenly / unexpectedly end with a decisive Russian victory because they're only getting stronger, Ukraine weaker, the US is pulling out and the EU is in a bad place financially.