Apart from trying regime change at the start of the war, Russia has made no attempt, or statement, or taken any action, which would suggest that Russia is planning now, or in the future, to invade all of Ukraine. The population of Ukraine is around 39? million. Ukraine has not lowered the conscription age. Therefore, there will ALWAYS be a Western Ukraine, and with such a population, ignoring all the false narratives and propaganda, Ukraine can hold out, literally, for years. What that means is that we will fast forward to 5 years from now and things will either be the same(unlikely) or worse(likely).
I hope everyone is comfortable because this is going to be a long long time.
I welcome any opposing views from anyone.
1) The frontlines are crumbling, Ukraine is facing a manpower shortage and needs to forcefully conscript new recruits constantly. The Ukrainian economy is wrecked and Ukraine needs a constant flow of cash, military hardware / ammunition / intelligence.
2) The Russians only got stronger. From a ~150K (estimation) invasion force they went to ~600K (estimation) troops on the ground in Ukraine. They now got drone dominance / fiber optic drones / FABS / Geran drones / etc. The whole of Ukraine is getting pounded, their critical infrastructure, industrial base and so on.
So here's my view
Ukraine can only hold out 5 more years if they're able to keep throwing men at it, men who are getting increasingly desperate and are deserting in ever larger numbers. Secondly the West needs to keep throwing taxpayer money into this black hole where everything just disappears and corrupt officials fill their pockets and have golden toilets in their bathroom.
The Ukrainian ultra nationalists / Banderites will keep shoving people into vans but Western funding will dry up. The US is in the process of pulling out and the EU simply cannot take over the US' share and bear the burden for the next 5 years. Like I said before EU member states can't even find the cash to fund their own budgets.
Which is why they're circling Russia's sovereign assets like a bunch of vultures. They simply don't have the cash. If they steal those assets they can fund Ukraine for another ~2 years max but they open pandora's box and I don't believe it will happen.
--> Quick update on the frozen Russian assets from ~25:50 and the difficulties the EU is facing when it comes to funding Ukraine