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Nov 25 2025 11:20am
Yeah but finance people have their insiders. Share value doesn't dip easily. I think the US really wants to pull out.


let me explain: the US and Europe, have this notion, that they can agree, between themselves, how the war will end. Russia has not agreed to the deal on the table, there is no deal on the table. Europe and Ukraine have made a counter proposal, and again, they are NOT talking to Russia. Russia won't agree. its all just noise right now, Ukraine and Europe dont realize they dont have any cards. there is nothing going on right now, just alot of "noise".
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Nov 25 2025 11:22am
I mean, those takes are clearly hyperbole, but there is a grain or truth to it. Bear with me: Let's assume for a moment that Trump's peace plan goes through mostly as proposed and that the US security guarantees to Ukraine prove reliable over the following years - what would Russia have accomplished in the end, compared with the status quo ante in January 2022?

They would have captured the third of Donetsk/Luhansk which they were still missing back then, they would have taken a small strip of mostly depopulated and not very resource-rich land between the Donbass and Crimea, and they would have gotten Ukraine to officially acknowledge the secession of Crimea and the Donbas. Ukraine, on the other hand, would have defended its autonomy and could join the EU and now has US security guarantees which prevent Russia from pushing them around or taking more of their territory in the future. Meanwhile, Finland and Sweden have joined NATO and NATO is now much more alert to any Russian actions in general. The West is re-arming, which according to the Russian theory of the case forces Russia to keep spending bigger sums on its own military in the coming years than they would like to.

All in all, this outcome is still a "win" for Russia (rather than a loss, lmao), but it's a far smaller win than what they were going for. And it would indeed be valid to question whether such an outcome was actually worth the death toll and the economic disruption. The answer is probably a "yes", but only narrowly so.




On the other hand, if the peace plan ends up being trash, Ukraine gives up its most fortified positions in the Donbas (Kramatorsk/Sloviansk), Russia keeps attacking and the US goes back on its security guarantees, leaves Ukraine high and dry, then this plan would be a huge boon to Russia. So long story short, we're back at my previous point that the specifics and the reliabiltiy of those security guarantees will be the crux in all of this.


The main benefit to Russia is economic, they're selling oil and gas at steep discounts, and they'd see relief from sanctions that are having a significant impact on the Russian economy. They'd also see hundreds of billions in assets unfrozen, which I'd expect to see them move out of Western control.

The second question is how Ukraine responds to the effective loss of territory. I'd expect to see Russia continue to intervene in Ukraine in an attempt to influence their electoral results. It's not unthinkable that Ukraine might end up like Belarus in 10-15 years time.
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Nov 25 2025 11:25am
Yeah but finance people have their insiders. Share value doesn't dip easily. I think the US really wants to pull out.


its easier, and more profitable, to dips share value than raise it (legally).

you can place a call option, then release some info that increases investor optimism, and make money. but you'll run into a lot of issues if that info was false, fraud.

you can place a put option, and then make the stock price go down in a lot of legal fraud-free ways, and make a LOT of money. many institutions have been doing this as their business model for decades, its was took out toys r us. they destroyed the company on purpose so they could profit from it's downfall.

not exactly in context with defense stock prices, but if the stock does go down someone will make a LOT of money as it falls.
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Nov 25 2025 11:30am
The main benefit to Russia is economic, they're selling oil and gas at steep discounts, and they'd see relief from sanctions that are having a significant impact on the Russian economy. They'd also see hundreds of billions in assets unfrozen, which I'd expect to see them move out of Western control.

The second question is how Ukraine responds to the effective loss of territory. I'd expect to see Russia continue to intervene in Ukraine in an attempt to influence their electoral results. It's not unthinkable that Ukraine might end up like Belarus in 10-15 years time.


at this point the sanctions have turned out to be a disaster as Russia has been forced to become self sufficient, or look to other markets. there is simply no reason for Russia to now trade with Europe. the purpose of sanctions is to force your opponent to change. Well, Russia has changed, but not in a way that the US or Europe foresaw.

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 25 2025 11:31am
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Nov 25 2025 02:35pm
at this point the sanctions have turned out to be a disaster as Russia has been forced to become self sufficient, or look to other markets. there is simply no reason for Russia to now trade with Europe. the purpose of sanctions is to force your opponent to change. Well, Russia has changed, but not in a way that the US or Europe foresaw.


The threat of sanctions has kept other non-Western business out of Russia, though. Not all of it, but enough to be very painful. Not having to skip chips through third countries at a markup would be welcome, for instance.
I agree, though, that we've seen a sort of irrevocable break between the EU and Russia. The US will get over it in the short-run, but American companies are going to be reticent about investing seriously in Russia for a long time.
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Nov 25 2025 02:46pm
The threat of sanctions has kept other non-Western business out of Russia, though. Not all of it, but enough to be very painful. Not having to skip chips through third countries at a markup would be welcome, for instance.
I agree, though, that we've seen a sort of irrevocable break between the EU and Russia. The US will get over it in the short-run, but American companies are going to be reticent about investing seriously in Russia for a long time.


from a US stand point, its not a big deal.
from a EU stand point, it is a big deal.
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Nov 25 2025 05:42pm
On that note,

This is obviously a European conflict and a European concern primarily. It is only an American concern insofar as the % of hypnotized idiots or vested/interested parties who benefit from the performative nonsense of supporting the continuation of the war. Whether or not Russia has a little more Black Sea coastline is extremely minimal impact on the US geopolitical standing in the world.

Now try to imagine there's a similar border conflict happening with Mexico or Canada. (I understand this extremely far-fetched, but hear me out for the example) How would the vast majority of Europeans react? They would throw their full weight and support behind Mexico and/or Canada. They would flood their social media with Mexican flags and mocking posts about Americans being fat gun toting Christian hillbilly cowboys. Granted, it's unlikely they'd provide material support, but their hearts and their culture would be with the enemies of America.

Yet, they expect Americans to prostrate themselves for their conflict, their backyard while obviously, they would never return the favor. Hey Europeans? Fuck off fix your own problems.

Sincerely, USA

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Nov 25 2025 07:32pm
The threat of sanctions has kept other non-Western business out of Russia, though. Not all of it, but enough to be very painful. Not having to skip chips through third countries at a markup would be welcome, for instance.
I agree, though, that we've seen a sort ofirrevocable break between the EU and Russia. The US will get over it in the short-run, but American companies are going to be reticent about investing seriously in Russia for a long time.


I don't know how true this is and i look at post WW2 Europe as an example. Ze Germans killed and subjugated a bunch of their neighbors and look how fast they got over it. Fact of the matter is Europe is extremely energy hungry and has to source that energy whether gas, oil, etc. from outside the EU. If you are a German manufacturer and the geopolitical or sanctions risk is removed from Russian energy, why would you pay 2x or 3x to import LNG from the US or oil from the ME? Free market economics is an overwhelming force.

It won't happen immediately, but if i was a betting man if the war ends tomorrow, 5 years after that i'd expect energy imports from Russia to the EU to be much higher than they are today.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Nov 25 2025 07:35pm
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Nov 26 2025 06:56am
Looks like Moldova accidentally prevented a false flag by arresting Ukranian smugglers trying to bring in explosives, guns, “ground fire rocket” and a “downed Geran drone”.

What did Ukranians plan to do with a downed Geran drone and a “ground fire rocket” in Moldova?

https://www.procuratura.md/stiri-si-mass-media/comunicate-de-presa/precizari-cu-privire-la-camionul-cu-armament-depistat-la-6
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Nov 26 2025 08:57am
Looks like Moldova accidentally prevented a false flag by arresting Ukranian smugglers trying to bring in explosives, guns, “ground fire rocket” and a “downed Geran drone”.

What did Ukranians plan to do with a downed Geran drone and a “ground fire rocket” in Moldova?

https://www.procuratura.md/stiri-si-mass-media/comunicate-de-presa/precizari-cu-privire-la-camionul-cu-armament-depistat-la-6


It's a shame this news will fly right over the heads of most of those "russia bad" morons.
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