Anyway the (latest) peace plan is now public and we can see all the proposed deals;



notable inclusions (distilling down the redundancies:)

• US is giving a security guarantee and 'decisive coordinated military response' if Russia invades further, and abandons all terms if Ukraine invades Russia or engages in long-range bombardment
  
• Ukraine will have a constitutional prohibition against joining NATO, and NATO pinky promises not to expand again, and Russia pinky promises not to invade again, and NATO won't position troops or weapons in Ukraine
  
• Ukraine can join the EU and gets $100 billion in frozen Russian assets, while Russia gets its sanctions lifted, rejoins the G8 and thaws its other frozen assets.
  
• Ukraine cedes the 12% of the DPR it currently holds and is under siege which become a DMZ administered by Russia, while Russia cedes 'other' territories, and Kher/Zap get frozen status quo and sorted out later
  
• The US and Russia restarts their nuclear non-proliferation treaties
  
• Ukraine agrees to reduce military size and be non-nuclear
  
• Ukraine must hold elections, disavow Nazi ideology and commit to not discriminating against orthodox christianity and russian-speakers (the stories I've heard from people coming back from Kyiv, this was a big 'yikes' on all counts)
  

A lot of bureaucratic stuff and expected peace deal details like body swaps, joint reconstruction, amnesty for war crimes, and a few oddball lines like the US demanding compensation and mineral rights even as a non-party to the conflict ('supposedly')
Well its the same deal. Ukraine can refuse it and lose the territories by force that they're asked to give up, anyway, and lose their chance to regain whatever territory Russia is willing to give up. Its the inevitable terms to end this conflict that will have to be agreed in the end, unless Ukraine cracks completely and collapses or provokes a nuclear war, not much other foreseeable end at this point. And at least the US is shoehorning in some worthwhile clauses like nuclear non-proliferation and a voluntary level of Russian compensation that Moscow would actually be willing to entertain, instead of high piracy.

I said mid-90s, after the USSR had already been dissolved (somewhat) orderly. Likewise, I wasn't talking about waging war or causing a famine in Russia (they can self-sustain anyway) - but what the US could have done is aggressively expand NATO back then, during the mid-90s, at a time when Russia was took weak to respond. Just bribe the corrupt kleptocrats in charge of Ukraine back then if you want that country so desperately and want to cut Russia off of its trade partners. Likewise, the US could have invested in Central Asia to break away key Russian allies back then (China wasn't nearly strong enough to compete geopolitically).

Also, in which world has Russia, with its 143m people and its outdated industry, any hopes of "outcompeting" China with its ten times larger population and (by now) much more modern industry? The reason Russia would be a helpful ally in the geopolitical competition against China is the vast natural resources and the vast space in Asia which they control, but surely not their competitiveness...

Okay, I need to look into the specifics more closely later today, but one point which cracked me up at first glance is point 14:
"$100bn in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild Ukraine, the US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. The EU will add $100bn."

So, basically, under this proposal, the US would take a hefty chunk of money from frozen Russian assets and funnel it to US firms, with half the profits going to the US government itself. Meanwhile, Ukraine's government gets nothing; the EU also gets nothing and pays up an extra $100bn on top.

L O L
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Another funny one is this: "This agreement will be legally binding. It's implementation will be guaranteed and monitored by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump."
Does anyone seriously believe the Russians would sign an international treaty in which they subjugate themselves to the verdict of the POTUS who acts as the final arbiter?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 21 2025 01:08am

Don't underestimate their incompetence and plain stupidity

For many people, sending Ukrainians to their deaths in an unwinnable war is much easier than admitting the catastrophic failure of the policy aimed at isolating rather than integrating Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. But the moral sword of Damocles is over their heads, hence the hysterical reaction to any realistic peace plan that might emerge.

from what i understand, many leaders around the world see Donald Trump for what he is, and therefore they have no problem giving him big gifts if he does what they ask. so giving donald trump 100billion to end the war in ukraine is a good deal for russia. i mean this is actually a really good deal for russia when you look at it from a broader lens. they know europe will never give back the 250billion they stole so why not just roll with it. it will hasten the demise of the dollar. all round its a win win.

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 21 2025 03:56am

A few outlets also reporting that it was Umerov who specifically requested the clause about full amnesty for war crimes by both parties, and the original draft had a now removed line about auditing aid to Ukraine and taking legal action against corrupt misuse of funds. So it went from an anti-corruption line to a blanket amnesty for both violent war crimes and white collar embezzlement of US aid. Well the relative viciousness of war crimes by either side might be a contentious debate but at least we know for sure which side is a kleptocracy

well in fairness Russia is a kleptocracy. "A kleptocracy is a type of government in which the leaders (or ruling group) use their power to steal money and resources from the country." Ukraine would be one too, to a lesser extent, or well, in a different way, is a more correct way of framing it.

Are we really buying that Ukraine and the EU want a peace deal? it does not jive. they want a pause to regroup, they dont want to end the war. If the US manage to do this I will honestly laugh.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o

quite fascinating.

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 21 2025 05:08am

sorry for double post.

Putin rather famously brought the post-Yeltsin Russian kleptocracy to heel after taking power, and the country definitely turned the corner on overt corruption and being led by oligarchs, instead those who resisted Putin were crushed and the rest had to pay homage and cede power. Now the driving force in Russian politics is the Putin brand of nationalism, for better or worse. Most post-soviet republicans remained oligarchies rife with corruption and selling influence, and Ukraine was definitely a top example of that pre-Maidan and if anything just got worse as a puppet state post-revolution.

For all their accusations of Russian war crimes and even staging mock tribunals and sentencing POWs, Ukraine's interests in these deals are still more aligned with the oligarchs who pilfered US aid and defrauded their countrymen rather than any earnest desire for justice. Besides tribunals being a geopolitical sore point that would raise tensions in the future and the reasonable case for amnesty to cement peace, ukraine stands to be just as much or more culpable for war crimes as russia. So it seems easy for these ukrainian oligarchs to sneak in a blanket that covers not only the actions of banderite soldiers and sociopathic mercenaries serving in the AFU but also magically absolves their leaders of all liability for stealing US war funds. And given that Zelensky's regime is under serious internal threat from a massive corruption scandal unfolding right now and rumors of dramatic movements (a 'counterattack' by the oligarchs on the nationalists)- that seems like a pressure point that the US can exploit to achieve a peace deal.

Which sadly is in keeping with US policy for decades now. Don't give a shit about the actual welfare of the rest of the world, and just buy them off to stop causing trouble. A handful of ukrainians will have defrauded the US of billions of dollars and get away with it, a small price to pay for world peace