I think this will be the breaking point for democrats in the shutdown staredown.
We've been too efficient at turning government shutdowns into a standard affair, taken out all the sharp edges by cutting out contingencies for the military, essential workers, insulated programs, etc etc.
If we ever actually shut down a federal government we'd either have to release every federal prisoner or carry out a bunch of summary executions
This will be the first pain point and I don't think democrats can afford to take home a prize of "We cut out your food stamps so we could give billions in subsidies to health insurance companies"
If they were fighting for tax breaks for working families or direct subsidies to citizens at least they'd have a bad argument, but right now they're taking food away from the needy to give money to billionaires, inverse robin hood award
The only question is who is seen as responsible in the eyes of the people. Once that shifts toward one side, we reach a breaking point.