I think (maybe i'm wrong on the read) the war is coming to an end. The only real disagreement is what happens with Ukrainian controlled Donetsk. The US doesn't have the appetite to continue funnel tens if not hundreds of billions indefinitely. The west thought that they would break Russian resolve by outspending them over several years so Russia would give up and accept some unfavorable peace. It didn't happen, and hundreds of billions both from US and Europe going to Ukraine didn't really accomplish much, other than prevent the complete collapse of Ukraine's army.
Tomahawks would not change the trajectory of the war, Russia still keeps the lands, but what it would do is escalate where Russia may be forced to declare an actual war in which it's millions mobilized and then Kiev and other large cities are sieged. No one wants this tbh aside from Zelensky that's living in an illusion that Ukraine can force Russia to give everything back if only a little more pressure is applied.
While it’s tempting to believe the war is approaching its conclusion, the underlying dynamics suggest otherwise. Ukraine has no intention to surrender — not politically, militarily, or psychologically. For Kyiv and the West, the world is black and white: fight and live, or surrender and die. They live in absolutes. Every signal coming from Zelensky indicates a determination to fight to the last man rather than concede defeat. As I outlined a few pages back, Europe remains like the Titanic — twenty-seven captains, incapable of reversing course, and very difficult to turn. It moves through inertia, not initiative. Once a collective policy line is set — in this case, full support for Ukraine — the institutional machinery sustains it almost automatically. Even if several member states privately question the sanity of it all, the EU’s consensus-driven architecture and the moral framing of the conflict prevent any meaningful pause. Bureaucratic continuity, not strategic reassessment, defines Europe.
Europe is rearming. We see it repeatedly in policy papers and media reports: plans for Europe’s armies by 2030, rising defense budgets, new procurement programs, and conscription debates returning to the mainstream. Funds are being allocated — one way or another — to sustain war. These are not temporary measures, but signs of a long-term structural shift: the normalization of a militarized Europe. Far from winding down, the conflict has become the engine of Europe’s transformation. What began as a war in Ukraine is evolving into a long-term realignment of European identity, strategy, and defense posture. Both sides are becoming entrenched in a shared sense of existential crisis, and the adventure has entered its third act. The trajectory is not toward peace, but toward confrontation.