According to the our resident Frenchy who disappeared and would probably make a multi.

Putin May Soon Struggle To Pay His Soldiers

Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a grinding test of endurance, and Vladimir Putin is struggling to sustain his wartime finances. What many expected to be a quick victory has instead devolved into a costly war of attrition, with Moscow unable to break through Ukraine’s growing “drone wall.”

Ukraine is waging a precise campaign to cripple Russia’s oil refineries, while also accelerating production of drones and domestic missiles, and expanding the role of autonomous weapons — innovations that only deepen the Kremlin’s mounting problems.

Read more:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkirichenko/2025/10/03/putin-may-soon-struggle-to-pay-his-soldiers/

A lot of hopium right there

Russia's debt to GDP is like 17% or so I read and they have a massive gold reserve and are sitting on massive natural resources like oil / gas / minerals.

Most Western countries have massive debt to GDP ratio's, already depleted most of their natural resources and countries like France / Italy / UK might need an IMF bailout.

Ouch

Western countries are able to borrow money on international markets at a reasonable rate. Russia cannot.

Western countries have a much higher standard of living, including generous welfare states. Russia does not.

Western countries are running deficits of 1-3% (France excluded). Russia's is much higher.

So if Russia needs more money, they'd have to print it when their inflation is already 10% or so. Their interest rate is also near 20% which is unsustainable.

Russia's gold reserve alone is massive. Gold is currently siting at nearly 3900 USD per troy ounce and you can sell it everywhere for cold hard USD. Not even talking about all other natural resources, Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project to China and so on.

Western higher standards of living means nothing. France is running a deficit for like 5 decades strait and current deficit is around 5% which is why they urgently need reforms which the spoilt French don't accept and the reason why they light up Paris every couple of months.

Also google Purchasing Power Parity, look up how much a simple artillery shell costs in the West compared to an artillery shell in Russia and you'll understand you cannot just compare GDP let alone living standards which means nothing at all in a war of attrition.

Russia had a lot of reserves. The problem is, they're using them to fund their sprawling deficits because borrowing money on international markets is not an option. At the current deficit rates and ural crude prices, the liquid assets of the NWF will be drained within 18 months.

GDP by PPP per capita is also much higher in Western countries than in Russia. Are you disputing that?

Russia is probably the wealthiest country when it comes to natural resource reserves. While our currencies are debased to nothing those resources retain actual value. Western pundits have been predicting Russias collapse, Russia running out of bullets for how many years now? Meanwhile I look at western countries bond markets and have to scratch my head which of the two is closer to collapse.

They don’t need access to western capital markets to raise dollars, they can price things in rupees and yuan. In 50 years the globe will still want Russian natural resources, I don’t know if I can say the same about the USD or GBP.

I'm arguing that Russia has massive gold reserves and natural resources and a vey low debt to GDP ratio. That's reality.

Let's add that they were cut off from SWIFT 3 years ago, their central bank assets frozen and like 16000 odd sanctions issued against them. Instead of collapsing they started producing stuff domestically and opened up new markets so they're doing really well considering the circumstances.

And I'm arguing a Russian artillery shell is much cheaper to produce than a Western artillery shell it's a matter of fact.

Using this logic, Singapore isn't rich because they don't have natural resources or significant manufacturing capabilities. It's Austrian bullshit.



All those things are true, but they aren't forward-looking. Despite their reserves and natural resources, they are facing some tough economic choices now, and their reserves are being drained at speed to fund deficits.

And yet they still have not won.