Again: Europe's economy was going through a major crisis as it lost access to cheap Russian gas and as oil prices soared (Europe imports a far higher share of its oil than the US). This fueled inflation in the EU very drastically and also caused an economic slump, which then dragged down the labor markets as well. The null hypothesis should be that the US gets through this period with significantly lower inflation and more growth and jobs than Europe. Against this context, the US actually experiencing higher inflation on aggregate and only a slightly better job growth is a very weak outcome.
I think the extent to which Amazon/supply chain optimization kept inflation down during the 2010s is underappreciated.
And there was never a chance of the USAs result coming out close to your null hypothesis under some republican administration. The USA would be in the same similar spot and every Dem candidate running noted prices were high and continued to be in 2024, hell its right in their platform.
Honestly hats off to democrats really, it's not ideal anywhere but they did manage to not push into recession while lowering rates, decent job growth, fairly well done.
Again not ideal, but it never was going to be, changes in administration as a result. If it was republican through covid I'd bet the farm it would flop back democratic after.
This post was edited by SBD on Jul 25 2025 05:13pm