Is this the first time in 25 years the stock market has fallen almost 15% from its recent highs and still isn't remotely cheap?

Fwd PE of 18 including generous earnings estimates that are likely to be revised down.

Yes, in the long run you will make money investing now, just like any other time. I'm not convinced that it's a *good* time to buy, though.

There's also the reputational damage that America is inflicting on itself which I think Americans are underestimating.

The stock market has long since felt removed from reality with its absurd forward growth focus / high pe ratios.

It makes it increasingly harder to even get sense of overall trending direction or to deem it that good time to do xyz.

I'm okay with buy now cry now. I've learned lessons from the past about not buying now and crying far more later about being an idiot!

My wife is the best investor. She has no sense of money, she reads exactly zero news. She never looks at it dispite being 7 figures, I have her perfectly trained every two weeks go buy market ETF. She never knows even what's happening in the world. Masters in research and her research is her passion, not money. Bet she out performs your average bank fund manager who's looking for the good time to buy in the span of 10 years.

This post was edited by SBD on Apr 12 2025 08:59am

trump 1st term people said all the time the world would wait out trump, understanding the president doesnt last forever.

now 10% tariff nations are saying america's reputation will take decades to recover, while 245% nations basically say raise it any more we dont care we're at our cap.

so hyperbolic, if a trade deal is reached exporters will load up shipping containers with a grin on their face.

what exactly is "reputation" in actual terms? less foreign nations buying out treasury bonds and inflating our debt more? *gasp*. less foreign investment in the US market? gonna invest in the chinese market? unlikely.

im not saying this leaves us squeaky clean, or will have zero effect. but lets define actual effect and leave feelings out.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Apr 17 2025 10:08am

Off the top of my head, the quantifiable things would be:
- Permanently higher treasury yields, which would be a disaster for a country with a 130% debt to GDP ratio and 7% deficit
- Less purchasing of US military equipment long term, in order for a higher level of self-sufficiency amongst Western nations
- Less tourism

At the end of the day, it's a spectrum. America's reputational damage to Canada and Denmark will be long term, whereas it may be fleeting for the likes of the UK or Japan. The US won't give a shit about Denmark but Canada is a big trading partner.

Denmark in 4 years will laugh that a president tried to buy Greenland, but in trade terms like you say they're insignificant.

Canada is the real worry but they're not exactly in a power position. we have a 923b$ total trade relationship of which they're slightly on top of a 41b$ deficit over us. what are they gonna do? get so mad they give up a trade relationship that makes them money during a period where they've struggled to gain anything economically for a decade? canada is hurting, they've had relative earnings stagnation for a long long time, while the real estate and purchasing costs have increased. i wouldnt be surprised if they cut a deal faster than japan or south korea if tariffs remain in place. if not the liberals may lose power for 20 years, and their grasp is loose already.

overall reputation is overrated, we're the world's import market. we import more by a significant amount than the entire EU. in business first phase is always talk tough then bend over once the biggest customer threatens to walk. if this extends im curious to see what the collections are vs our deficit. we might actually reap enough to forgo borrowing, we'll know once the budget reconciliation is done, too many what ifs currently.

i think the current tariff rollout was silly, too few off ramps not enough on ramps, just 0-60 mph. but i also think the world is talking a lot more tough than they have in them. it easy to taunt the madman with "you'll drag us all down with you", but a global recession to save face on a trade deal is what democratic govts are willing to die on? i doubt it. the USA hasn't lost reputation imo, trump has gained one, as a legit madman willing to take down the world's economy if he doesnt get his way. he's a toddler with a gun.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Apr 17 2025 01:42pm

Excellent conclusion of your narrative. I'm pretty sure toddlers with guns usually get their toys taken away rather than getting what they want, though.
You're right on a lot of things, I think, at a nation-level of things, but in the end without the imported products US industry and consumer are hurting most. This "walking away" as the biggest customer is not a feasable action for the US, at all, and the attempt is likely to end up with disaster for US citizens. Canada has put it nicely in Trudeau's final days: nobody wins. Everybody loses.

@Dow Jones peeps, how's y'all doing =o I have given up self-investing when I found out it was a little too addictive some 4-6 years ago but the thread is grabbing my interest.

I think most of us in this thread are long term investors. Buy low and hold. A lil swing trade and day trade in the mix.

I do agree it is addictive but ive decided ill be in it until im ded. I see it as a feasible portal to financial freedom.

ya I just dca nowadays and forget it exists
It works. It just takes 20-30 years

Tesla misses earnings by a fair bit and goes up (at least for now). I never get this stock lol.

Just hold, it always goes up in the long run.