The USA just tried to bully the world and the world said nah mate.
Even after major tariff reversal, the 10 year is 60 basis points higher while they have alienated all their allies. It's a disaster for the USA.
The Trump administration could have just threatened tariffs and given time to negotiate more favourable deals if they actually thought trade practices were unfair. But what they've done is slap blanket 10% tariffs on the countries they even have slight trade surpluses with, like the UK, so the only logical conclusion is that they think general, non-specific tariffs are objectively a good thing.
Feels like a Suez crisis moment for the US where there is a global realisation that the USA are not the biggest superpower in the world by far like they were from the period leading up to the fall of the soviet union until the present day.
our "not a superpower" moments came in Iraq and Afghanistan already. but economically i think its silly to say that this quickly. we're still THE and THE ONLY global super power in terms of buying exports. Europe had to form an unholy alliance just to approximate a fraction of our power.
now am i pro-tariff generally or in this case? hardly. but we're jumping the gun based on early indicators. China and the rest of the world blinked with reciprocal tariffs, already announcing they'll cap them regardless of what Trump does. so what's their next play? they have pretty much zero leverage outside of bond selloffs, so they pulled the lever. we're not even far enough into the wtf is going on phase for shipment pauses to cause a single chinese factory to lay off a single chinese worker. give it a week, month or quarter and we'll have a more clear picture how much China can do to weather the storm, be it accept downturn or offload exports to lower demand markets. same goes and even moreso for domestic production gains in the USA. if a quarter goes by and onshoring is well behind schedule then the entire base premise isnt working and just hurting for no reason.
This post was edited by thesnipa on Apr 11 2025 02:33pm