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Apr 11 2025 11:03am
Should put 1000% tariffs on china just for lols.

ps. I have no problem with the Chinese people.
It's the unfair trade practices, stealing of products and inability to access china's legal system that's the problem.

This post was edited by Mondain on Apr 11 2025 11:06am
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Apr 11 2025 11:16am


:blink: :wacko:


You’re right of course. Presidents have a “fix the entire global economy in 1-easy step button” and we just forgot to tell them where that button is on their desk in the White House.
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Apr 11 2025 11:32am
presidents cant fix economy quickly

presidents can tank it overnight (trump)

presidents can keep it bad over a long time period (biden)

how jerome powell achieved a soft landing on the last recession scare amidst inflation Biden was actively making worse is beyond me.


You’re right of course. Presidents have a “fix the entire global economy in 1-easy step button” and we just forgot to tell them where that button is on their desk in the White House.


i said the opposite lol. you're lost.
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Apr 11 2025 11:35am
i said the opposite lol. you're lost.


Ahh nvm I’m the idiot then here. I just can’t read. Ignore me.
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Apr 11 2025 11:58am
Ahh nvm I’m the idiot then here. I just can’t read. Ignore me.


no worries, i always give bonus points for admitting you're wrong. people who double and triple down are the worst.
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Apr 11 2025 12:23pm
Below is pretty accurate, that’s why I keep harping on abound bond yields

Quote


The 10Y Note Yield just:

1. Convinced Trump to delay tariffs by 90-days

2. Made the Fed ready to "stabilize" markets if needed

3. Made Trump ready for a phone call with Xi

4. Became one of Secretary Bessent's top priorities

5. Unwound the $800+ billion basis trade

The bond market is the new driver of economic policy
.

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Apr 11 2025 12:25pm
no worries, i always give bonus points for admitting you're wrong. people who double and triple down are the worst.


Lol I definitely have many flaws. Hopefully I can admit when I’m wrong though, which I clearly was. Sorry about that.

This post was edited by TeenyUncle8 on Apr 11 2025 12:26pm
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Apr 11 2025 01:25pm
Below is pretty accurate, that’s why I keep harping on abound bond yields

.


allowing foreign purchases of federal treasury bonds was a disaster, and always was going to end badly.

its like a company that opens a round of stock selling, and at first you're gleeful with the inflow of cash. next thing you know you own 30% of your own company and get ousted at a stockholders meeting.
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Apr 11 2025 02:08pm
The USA just tried to bully the world and the world said nah mate.

Even after major tariff reversal, the 10 year is 60 basis points higher while they have alienated all their allies. It's a disaster for the USA.

The Trump administration could have just threatened tariffs and given time to negotiate more favourable deals if they actually thought trade practices were unfair. But what they've done is slap blanket 10% tariffs on the countries they even have slight trade surpluses with, like the UK, so the only logical conclusion is that they think general, non-specific tariffs are objectively a good thing.

Feels like a Suez crisis moment for the US where there is a global realisation that the USA are not the biggest superpower in the world by far like they were from the period leading up to the fall of the soviet union until the present day.

This post was edited by dro94 on Apr 11 2025 02:10pm
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Apr 11 2025 02:32pm
The USA just tried to bully the world and the world said nah mate.

Even after major tariff reversal, the 10 year is 60 basis points higher while they have alienated all their allies. It's a disaster for the USA.

The Trump administration could have just threatened tariffs and given time to negotiate more favourable deals if they actually thought trade practices were unfair. But what they've done is slap blanket 10% tariffs on the countries they even have slight trade surpluses with, like the UK, so the only logical conclusion is that they think general, non-specific tariffs are objectively a good thing.

Feels like a Suez crisis moment for the US where there is a global realisation that the USA are not the biggest superpower in the world by far like they were from the period leading up to the fall of the soviet union until the present day.


our "not a superpower" moments came in Iraq and Afghanistan already. but economically i think its silly to say that this quickly. we're still THE and THE ONLY global super power in terms of buying exports. Europe had to form an unholy alliance just to approximate a fraction of our power.

now am i pro-tariff generally or in this case? hardly. but we're jumping the gun based on early indicators. China and the rest of the world blinked with reciprocal tariffs, already announcing they'll cap them regardless of what Trump does. so what's their next play? they have pretty much zero leverage outside of bond selloffs, so they pulled the lever. we're not even far enough into the wtf is going on phase for shipment pauses to cause a single chinese factory to lay off a single chinese worker. give it a week, month or quarter and we'll have a more clear picture how much China can do to weather the storm, be it accept downturn or offload exports to lower demand markets. same goes and even moreso for domestic production gains in the USA. if a quarter goes by and onshoring is well behind schedule then the entire base premise isnt working and just hurting for no reason.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Apr 11 2025 02:33pm
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