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Apr 10 2025 10:23am
You realize the non china tariffs got cancelled (for another 90 days topkek) because they were a shit idea and all you have to show for it is a huge loss on stocks and an even bigger loss on trust and directly following willingness to trade with you from literally all your non russian allies. Money generated from tarrifs until now: 0$, well played

Also somehow now all the alt right understand that tariffs are a tax on the citizens? Weird, felt like talking to windmills explaining this a few months ago.

I have a bachelors in economy mathematics (and a masters in maths/cs fwiw), what exactly are your qualifications?


1.Tariffs beyond 10% were delayed, while tariffs of 125% on China were maintained. They didn't get cancelled, we are still collecting that. Quick back of the napkin math for you

We import ~3.1trillion in goods of which roughly 450bn is from China.

Lets say it's only 100% on China goods, we would raise $225BN over a year.
Let's assume 10% of the other 2.5 trillion, that's another $250BN.

So roughly $475 BN revenue.


You didn't even know that we maintained these tariffs but want to pretend because you're educated on paper that somehow means something? Lol.

And for the record i have a econ bachelors, MBA and work in finance and write memos where i do long form financial analysis. Don't bring your background into this, let your argument be good enough on a standalone basis.
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Apr 10 2025 10:24am
The economy was roaring under Trump before covid fucked it all up, in particular, real wage growth was really strong. By contrast, the economy was not actually roaring under Biden, his term saw real wages stagnate on aggregate, and decline for the first two thirds. It was only the propaganda of his own administration and its allies in the media which claimed that the Biden economy was oh so great. I only pointed to this because their own rhetoric took away the only feasible justification they might have had for a $1.83T deficit in 2024.


Also, Trump's politics aren't indistinguishable from Biden. On the contrary, the data I showed you prove that Biden ran an 85% higher deficit under relatively similar conditions, and with less to show for it.
How good or bad Trump's economic track record will turn out to be during his second term remains to be seen. I'm willing to entertain the possibility that he will fail badly this time around. Time will tell. What is not up for debate, however, is that the economic track record of the Biden/Harris admin was an abject failure.


1. Bolded part is simply not true - not adjusting for inflation is straight up false, not accounting for Russias attack on Ukraine at least dishonest.
2. Take a look at the timeseries I posted on the page before and tell me exactly where you see a break from 2011 to now. Because I certainly see exactly one caused by COVID, otherwise Trumps first term and Bidens term look like they fit great together.
3. Sure, let's come back in a year and see how Trump did. I am completely transparent, even made a topic with predictions on how I think Trumps term will go. I was wrong on some parts, right on others while all the trump lovers who posted in it were mostly just wrong. Let's see if that pattern holds
Member
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Apr 10 2025 10:26am
1.Tariffs beyond 10% were delayed, while tariffs of 125% on China were maintained. They didn't get cancelled, we are still collecting that. Quick back of the napkin math for you

We import ~3.1trillion in goods of which roughly 450bn is from China.

Lets say it's only 100% on China goods, we would raise $225BN over a year.
Let's assume 10% of the other 2.5 trillion, that's another $250BN.

So roughly $475 BN revenue.


You didn't even know that we maintained these tariffs but want to pretend because you're educated on paper that somehow means something? Lol.

And for the record i have a econ bachelors, MBA and work in finance and write memos where i do long form financial analysis. Don't bring your background into this, let your argument be good enough on a standalone basis.


That does explain literally everything, I am out. Most of my job is trying to explain numbers to people who feel very smart bc of their MBA, cba to do the same in my freetime aswell.

Just a quick word on your back on the envelope math: are you ignoring demand elasticities in your calculation? I thought that is how the white house arrived at their totally not only based on trade deficit numbers? Curious <- this is a rhetorical question, please do not answer. I stand by the first part of my post

This post was edited by SkySwallower on Apr 10 2025 10:29am
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Apr 10 2025 10:26am
Oh darn, I opened my investments page. That was a mistake.
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Apr 10 2025 10:29am
That does explain literally everything, I am out. Most of my job is trying to explain numbers to people who feel very smart bc of their MBA, cba to do the same in my freetime aswell.


The masters in math is exiting when basic math gets brought up, okay my friend. Like i said, background doesn't mean much, we are all equal here and we should be able to debate on standalone arguments not fall back on argument from authority fallacy.

Oh darn, I opened my investments page. That was a mistake.


Damn, didn't think it was about to give back 2/3 of the gains from yesterday. Thought we would see some give back but not this level.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 10 2025 10:33am
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Apr 10 2025 10:36am
That does explain literally everything, I am out. Most of my job is trying to explain numbers to people who feel very smart bc of their MBA, cba to do the same in my freetime aswell.

Just a quick word on your back on the envelope math: are you ignoring demand elasticities in your calculation? I thought that is how the white house arrived at their totally not only based on trade deficit numbers? Curious <- this is a rhetorical question, please do not answer. I stand by the first part of my post


"here's napkin math"

"wow you didnt even do a 3 page report on how supply/demand will change in real time based on these tariffs for a d2jsp conversation"

brings up math degree, runs for the hills. that was embarrassing man lol.



This post was edited by thesnipa on Apr 10 2025 10:38am
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Apr 10 2025 11:05am
The masters in math is exiting when basic math gets brought up, okay my friend. Like i said, background doesn't mean much, we are all equal here and we should be able to debate on standalone arguments not fall back on argument from authority fallacy.



Damn, didn't think it was about to give back 2/3 of the gains from yesterday. Thought we would see some give back but not this level.


Yeah, I thought we would travel sideways for a bit and have volatility cool-down for a few weeks, world events pending.

Market Summary
>
VIX
48.30
+14.68 (43.66%)today

Wewh, was I wrong on that one.

This post was edited by SBD on Apr 10 2025 11:06am
Member
Posts: 92,890
Joined: Dec 31 2007
Gold: 2,299.94
Apr 10 2025 11:09am
Yeah, I thought we would travel sideways for a bit and have volatility cool-down for a few weeks, world events pending.

Market Summary
>
VIX
48.30
+14.68 (43.66%)today

Wewh, was I wrong on that one.


quarterly earnings will the bloodbath should this continue.

pretty funny too that everyone knows it will be bad news, yet once its announced they'll all tank.
Member
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Apr 10 2025 11:23am
quarterly earnings will the bloodbath should this continue.

pretty funny too that everyone knows it will be bad news, yet once its announced they'll all tank.


If i'm a COO, CFO, etc. I use these events to take a bath and pump future quarters. Easy excuse, trade headwinds, just add it to every disclosure.
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Apr 10 2025 11:34am
If i'm a COO, CFO, etc. I use these events to take a bath and pump future quarters. Easy excuse, trade headwinds, just add it to every disclosure.


and as a COO you cant really get fired due to this, best time to pump for sure. come out the other side looking like a hero.

on a semi related note i heard a story about a company called Tiny Box that makes small customer sized boxes. they're claiming now due to processors cost they're going to run negative profit. im sure that's true with what their plans were, but just stop expanding into more machines and stop trying to flood the market with boxes. use what you have and hold tight. these "we're instantly out of business" stories are somewhat overblown. unless you're a pure import and assemble/sell model.
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