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#311
Apr 7 2025 02:13pm
Quote (MadMan87 @ Apr 7 2025 10:00pm)
Why are world economists expecting the US to still stay at the top of world economies in 2025? Seems premature giving all the drama.

It all boils down to rhetoric “Orange man and US BAD. *beats chest* ohhh ahh ahh me go back to cave”.


I can tell you that the EU is moving away from the US with a speed that is entirely uncommon - usually everything here politically is incredibly slow.

Of course you will be at the top 2025, currently global trade still depends on you. This won't be true for the future though, all initiated so one man with tiny hands could feel big.
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#312
Apr 7 2025 02:18pm
Quote (SkySwallower @ Apr 7 2025 04:13pm)
I can tell you that the EU is moving away from the US with a speed that is entirely uncommon - usually everything here politically is incredibly slow.

Of course you will be at the top 2025, currently global trade still depends on you. This won't be true for the future though, all initiated so one man with tiny hands could feel big.


Towards what?
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#313
Apr 7 2025 02:18pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Apr 7 2025 04:28pm)
China is already stuck between a rock and a hard place. They have slowing domestic demand and slowing global demand. Historically they could dump all of that excess demand in global markets, but with these tariffs they can't. These tariffs puts even further pressure on that and could cause a deflationary scenario which would be catastrophic for them. In such a case, we'd actually might see global deflation not inflation.

If they devalue = global consumers are fine but domestically they are fucked as food and energy imports will go way up in price. If they devalue it also puts less confidence on the Yuan, so bilateral trade partners may say we want to get paid in something else vs Yuan... so much for de-dollarization?

Trump/Bessent made it clear de-dollarization won't be accepted and it's a top priority for USD to remain reserve currency. China devaluing would fall into the trap, because if you devalue your currency you're fucking all those trade partners that 'trusted' your currency's stability.


This is a very good post.
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#314
Apr 7 2025 02:20pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Apr 7 2025 10:18pm)
Towards what?


Own military, increased trade with non US partners, own production.
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#315
Apr 7 2025 02:22pm
Quote (SkySwallower @ Apr 7 2025 04:20pm)
Own military, increased trade with non US partners, own production.


I'm asking for specifics though. Who exactly is going to fill the demand void the US would leave behind? Like which market?

China will crush Europe globally and already has within autos & other manufacturing. What exactly is Europe competitive at producing over China for example?

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#316
Apr 7 2025 02:25pm
One overlooked aspect in your analyses is imho that China can try to dump all its excess production into Europe, which can use the stuff to replace American imports which the EU intends to hit with a 25% retaliatory tariff. The other way round will be much more difficult, though. Europe can't as easily replace the US as a sales market with China since they are two very different markets with different purchasing power and product preferences.

I honestly have no idea whatsoever how all of this will play out. What I do know is that an attempt at shaking up the broken status quo is worthwhile and that nobody should panic just because the financial markets are notoriously nervous.
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#317
Apr 7 2025 02:28pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Apr 7 2025 10:22pm)
I'm asking for specifics though. Who exactly is going to fill the demand void the US would leave behind? Like which market?

China will crush Europe globally and already has within autos & other manufacturing. What exactly is Europe competitive at producing over China for example?


Quality cars and well qualified people mostly. Some other niches you probably can't or don't want to trust China on - e.g. medical equipment and research.

Nobody will fill the void of the US market fully, but I can assure you the current climate expects you to stay unreliable for too long, so even alternatives that hurt in the short term will be preferable to continue dealing with you. Maybe if India get's their shit together, who knows.
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#318
Apr 7 2025 02:42pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 7 2025 08:25pm)
One overlooked aspect in your analyses is imho that China can try to dump all its excess production into Europe, which can use the stuff to replace American imports which the EU intends to hit with a 25% retaliatory tariff. The other way round will be much more difficult, though. Europe can't as easily replace the US as a sales market with China since they are two very different markets with different purchasing power and product preferences.

I honestly have no idea whatsoever how all of this will play out. What I do know is that an attempt at shaking up the broken status quo is worthwhile and that nobody should panic just because the financial markets are notoriously nervous.


EU doesn't want china's crap
US doesn't want china's crap

China pumped 69 billion into it's own economy last week, week before.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-30/china-state-banks-plan-placements-of-72-billion-to-add-capital
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-state-banks-plan-placements-084203009.html

To stimulate Chinese citizens buying the crap.

China is in trouble if it can't find a buyer for it's cheap crap.

This post was edited by Mondain on Apr 7 2025 02:42pm
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#319
Apr 7 2025 02:43pm
Quote (SkySwallower @ Apr 7 2025 03:13pm)
I can tell you that the EU is moving away from the US with a speed that is entirely uncommon - usually everything here politically is incredibly slow.

Of course you will be at the top 2025, currently global trade still depends on you. This won't be true for the future though, all initiated so one man with tiny hands could feel big.


Dumb of them when Ukraine is saying Nato/EU can’t help them beat Russia without the US. The EU is DECADES away from being capable of surviving without the US even if they went cold Turkey today.

This is what will happen (it’s already happening with Finland, Sweden and the UK back pedaling), the EU, US , Canada and Mexico will create a NEW and STRONGER trade agreement that is good for EVERYONE and prevent Russia, China and BRICS from ever being able to compete.

The EU/NATO will become 10x more powerful. The US will have TRUE allies that can at least hold off enemies enough for the US to get there.

Watch. The world is either going to have a much stronger west OR the US will ally with Russia and become a power the world has never seen.

I only see those two possibilities other than M.A.D.
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#320
Apr 7 2025 02:43pm
Quote (Pyrotechx @ Apr 7 2025 10:12am)
11 TRILLION DOLLARS


Measuring economic performance, wealth, real value by stock market cap isn't tenable to the Walmart American. Sounds like (and mostly is) funny money / monopoly money. And don't worry, the funny money will recover, it always has. Don't panic and sell low.
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