just came to say so much for my 539 thesis, looked like it would be the magic number for a day then it fell apart

just dca-ing

stay safe everyone

put call ratio near 1, vix 45m fear and greed at 5. these are at bottoming numbers. but the larger question we need to ask is if this is an actual new bear market where we don't top again and go on to former lower lows or if the bull trend is intact and this was just a correction



This post was edited by Bazi on Apr 5 2025 06:56am

Markets usually bottom at max fear …. Ive deployed 30% of my bankroll on Friday

I think this crash is a politically manufactured fud by Trump and it has a good chance of resolving in the coming weeks. It could continue as well since Trump loves the attention.

Im thinking next week we hit a short term bottom before a bounce… then it could V-shape or crash harder depending on news/data

Ima dca in slowly into the coming weeks

I think we see a near term bounce next week - but if reciprocal tarrifs go into place on April 9th market going down further. Currently market has not fully discounted that these tariffs are going ahead - many people think they are a negotating tactic. I think they will be put into place but will become negotiated over time. I dont see the off ramp for Trump here - too many deals to make in too short of a time.

Can’t help to post here on likely the most exciting time of the year

If it matches covid correction which it is quite a bit right now , then this bounce is equivalent to 3/18/20. 8.7% reversal bottom to top, today we hit 8.6%. This would indicate a 462 spy bottom by 4/10, about 3-4% down from today lotd. Hang in there

Notable outperformer Crypto and crypto proxies , Tesla , game stop, mstr

Ignore the noise. Ignore the news. Vix doesn’t stay at 60 for long.

This post was edited by Bazi on Apr 7 2025 11:18am

Todays bounce on fake rumor was quite telling how fast market is willing to change. Sooner or later real positive news will come and recovery will be similar. I don't think this will be over anytime soon though.

Brk somehow closing green today.

Been buying my ass off .. 65% bankroll deployed

All into TQQQ

Envy those with cash right now to deploy. I am down just about 500K on paper since ATH in Feb. That's just total US market ETF so no risky holdings. I only typically get year-end payouts in January which I naturally immediately deploy and have done so this year, so no big influx's until next Jan. Unfortunate timing!

This post was edited by SBD on Apr 9 2025 08:49am

Stick to the gameplan …. Youre doing well in the long run!

But i would say its always wise to keep a small pile of cash ready for black swan events or rainy days like these past 2 month… so maybe next year you can reserve a 5-10% cash position if you choose to. Typically theres 2 nice buying dips every year.

Deployed my non emergency cash a month early, just have to take the beating.