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Apr 3 2025 06:02am
Answer the question, if you can spare some time in between stealing bicycles


Dude the amount of time you spend trying to get big on the internet just speaks to how sad things must be offline

"Watch your tone"

What a loser
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Apr 3 2025 06:30am
No way moving most manufacturing back to the US. Lets see if Americans can build their own iPads at the same cost and speed

Amazon workers have way better working conditions than those Chinese factories, and they still complain and go on strike. You want cheap and quick products, you can't rely on US manufacturing.


Americans engineered the iPad and have pushed the IP boundaries on IC fabrication technology that the Chinese literally have made petty attempts at stealing and reverse engineering. They are pretty good at it now.

The way I read it, the Tarrifs working are a function of the companies that onshore aspects of their operations and also existing domestic companies that can leverage the transition to bolster their competition. The backend has to follow through with domestic resources extraction and refinement. For example, Tesla has contracts for EV precious metals from prospective US mines that are tied up by government.

As for products, I don't think the US trying to mass produce low quality goods is the recipe the admin is after. At least I'd like to see a return to high quality and maintainable goods. For example, if you buy a furnace in the Midwest you'll probably at best get a 20 year somewhat limited warranty. My grandma had a 50 year lifetime everything warranty on here greatest gen furnace. Perhaps survivor bias, but the appliances in the old folks home just keep going. Have a 70s era Kenmore chilling my beer. The LG shit broke in a year.

My concern is this strategy doesn't seem feasible in a single four year term. And certain commodities need to be extra careful with

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Apr 3 2025 06:32am
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Apr 3 2025 06:33am
What degree of inflation for consumer goods are you okay with if it means possibly bringing some manufacturing jobs in the US? Some people were just about ready to ask for Biden’s head over 5% inflation.


Lets be honest about what caused inflation a few years ago. It was the unprecedented printing of trillions and the closing down of businesses that damaged supply chains. Most were forced to accept this level of inflation at its height something like 9% annualized and cumulative over 30-40% over the subsequent years to 'flatten the curve' or 'listen to the experts'.

Everyone is convinced this will cause wide spread inflation which is actually not a given. You know America produces Toyotas right? If a Toyota Corolla which is produced here is selling for 25k while Canada or Mexico produced cars are now 25% more expensive, the effect will be that more US produced Toyotas will sell over the tariffed goods. Now apply that to a wide range of products which also have substitutes. Not all will of course but a significant portion actually do.

So you will see 1. substitution and 2. some level of demand slow down. If demand slows down, that's actually not inflationary but deflationary.

There's also tons of carve outs if you read the fine text. For example TSM has carveouts when it comes to Semis imported from Taiwan which wouldn't be tariffed. Anything 'critical' has a carveout.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 3 2025 06:40am
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Apr 3 2025 06:42am
Lets be honest about what caused inflation a few years ago. It was the unprecedented printing of trillions and the closing down of businesses that damaged supply chains. Most were forced to accept this level of inflation at its height something like 9% annualized and cumulative over 30-40% over the subsequent years to 'flatten the curve' or 'listen to the experts'.

Everyone is convinced this will cause wide spread inflation which is actually not a given. You know America produces Toyotas right? If a Toyota Corolla which is produced here is selling for 25k while Canada or Mexico produced cars are now 25% more expensive, the effect will be that more US produced Toyotas will sell over the tariffed goods. Now apply that to a wide range of products which also have substitutes. Not all will of course but a significant portion actually do.

So you will see 1. substitution and 2. some level of demand slow down. If demand slows down, that's actually not inflationary but deflationary.

There's also tons of carve outs if you read the fine text. For example TSM has carveouts when it comes to Semis imported which wouldn't be tariffed.


Do you produce all the parts for that Corolla? The steel, the aluminium, the electronics, etc.? It’s foolish to think you can build something as complex as a car without being impacted by tarrifs all over the place. Are you going to be selling all these cars domestically as well or are you hoping other countries keep purchasing your cars at a heavy markup? How long do you think it would take to bring production back to the US for all these parts and primary ressources and will it be sustainable in the meantime? Doubt it.

e/ with all that the initial question was left unanswered… what level of inflation will you be confortable with?

This post was edited by Chainsaw47 on Apr 3 2025 06:44am
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Apr 3 2025 06:57am
Do you produce all the parts for that Corolla? The steel, the aluminium, the electronics, etc.? It’s foolish to think you can build something as complex as a car without being impacted by tarrifs all over the place. Are you going to be selling all these cars domestically as well or are you hoping other countries keep purchasing your cars at a heavy markup? How long do you think it would take to bring production back to the US for all these parts and primary ressources and will it be sustainable in the meantime? Doubt it.

e/ with all that the initial question was left unanswered… what level of inflation will you be confortable with?


The US also produces those metals though? The production for the Toyota is already here, and the point is products that are produced here will sell over imports. Over the long term the imports will have to budge on production to remain competitive, otherwise they will lose this massive market that represents 34% of all consumption

That's an impossible question to answer, because as I've said inflation is not a given. We accepted 30% inflation over some bullshit lockdowns that were imposed, you think 4% inflation is going to have people tapping out in a year or two?

If demand craters corps will be scrambling to clear out inventory. You know how you move sitting inventory usually? By discounting it. You have sales, you have rebates, etc. A lot of companies can afford thinner margins as long as the product is churning, what many can't afford is turning off the factories.

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Apr 3 2025 07:07am
The US also produces those metals though? The production for the Toyota is already here, and the point is products that are produced here will sell over imports. Over the long term the imports will have to budge on production to remain competitive, otherwise they will lose this massive market that represents 34% of all consumption

That's an impossible question to answer, because as I've said inflation is not a given. We accepted 30% inflation over some bullshit lockdowns that were imposed, you think 4% inflation is going to have people tapping out in a year or two?

If demand craters corps will be scrambling to clear out inventory. You know how you move sitting inventory usually? By discounting it. You have sales, you have rebates, etc. A lot of companies can afford thinner margins as long as the product is churning, what many can't afford is turning off the factories.


You don’t produce enough of those metals currently to sustain the desired level of car production. Margins on cars are already thin (~5% for manufacturers, 1-2% for dealers), I don’t expect non-American companies to start selling cars at a loss. Maybe it’s a plot to force public transportation, who knows.

Good to know you’d be okay with 30% inflation this time around.
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Apr 3 2025 07:12am
You don’t produce enough of those metals currently to sustain the desired level of car production. Margins on cars are already thin (~5% for manufacturers, 1-2% for dealers), I don’t expect non-American companies to start selling cars at a loss. Maybe it’s a plot to force public transportation, who knows.

Good to know you’d be okay with 30% inflation this time around.


They won't and that's why they are pledging investment within the US, you know the intended primary purpose of the tariffs from the getgo?

Quote
Hyundai: In March 2025, Hyundai announced a $20 billion investment in the U.S., including $5.8 billion for a new steel plant in Louisiana. This facility is expected to produce over 2.7 million metric tons of steel annually and create more than 1,400 jobs, supplying steel to auto plants in Alabama and Georgia. This move builds on earlier pledges to localize production and aligns with efforts to avoid import tariffs.

Stellantis: The company committed $5 billion to its U.S. manufacturing network, including reopening a plant in Illinois. This investment aims to increase domestic vehicle production, reflecting a strategic shift to bolster U.S.-based operations.

Volkswagen: Volkswagen is considering shifting production of its high-end Audi and Porsche brands to the U.S. While not yet finalized, this potential investment is part of a broader trend among foreign automakers responding to U.S. trade policies.

Honda: Honda has been reported as planning to build plants in the U.S. to manufacture models like the Accord and Civic. Though specific figures are less detailed, this aligns with sentiment from industry observers noting a shift of production from Mexico to the U.S.

Nissan: Nissan is among the automakers reportedly planning new U.S. ventures, though exact investment amounts remain unspecified in recent announcements. Its focus includes models like the Sentra, Versa, and Kicks, traditionally produced in Mexico for the U.S. market.

Rolls-Royce: The luxury brand, owned by BMW, is adding manufacturing capacity in the U.S., though specifics on scale are limited. This move complements its parent company’s broader strategy.

Volvo: Owned by China’s Geely, Volvo is strongly considering expanding U.S. production, potentially to mitigate tariff impacts, though no firm dollar amount has been publicly confirmed as of now.

Subaru and Isuzu: These manufacturers have also been mentioned in discussions on X and other platforms as planning U.S. plants, but concrete details on investment size or timelines are scarce in available data.

Tesla: Elon Musk has pledged to double Tesla’s U.S. car production, though this lacks a specific dollar figure or timeline in recent reports. This aligns with Tesla’s ongoing expansion, including plans for a delayed Mexico plant now eyed for 2025 or 2026.






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Apr 3 2025 07:17am
They won't and that's why they are pledging investment within the US, you know the intended primary purpose of the tariffs from the getgo?


Pledging like companies did during Trump’s first term to churn out some great headlines while not actually doing shit? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see where the goalposts have moved 4 years from now.
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Apr 3 2025 07:21am
Pledging like companies did during Trump’s first term to churn out some great headlines while not actually doing shit? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see where the goalposts have moved 4 years from now.


Dawg, once you start building factories that's a little more than just headlines. I know you guys are desperate for this to fail, but we're optimistic.
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Apr 3 2025 07:28am
Dawg, once you start building factories that's a little more than just headlines. I know you guys are desperate for this to fail, but we're optimistic.


It’s not that I want him to fail, I’m just not blinded by cult of personality optimism. I’d rather see whatever investments I have prosper than the current stagnation. Like I said, we’ll see 4 years from now.

This post was edited by Chainsaw47 on Apr 3 2025 07:28am
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