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Mar 28 2025 08:03am
Most of the car makers already have car manufacturing capacity in the US. Toyota, Ford, GM, Stellantis, whatever. They can't pass on the costs because demand will crater, nor can their margins absorb it, so the only solution is going to be increased production within the US to avoid the tariffs, while throttling output in Canada/Mexico. 3.5 years is a long time, most of these C-suite execs have a few quarters to avoid such risks and do something about it, they don't have 4 years to wait it out.

Maybe there's some deal and tariffs are dropped before next month, maybe not. If not though, you're going to see reshoring, 100%, who knows to what level but at least some will make the move, because this is a behemoth market and there is no other market able to absorb that type of supply level.


It appears on looking a bit further into it that its going to take some time. The date is next week but its not actually if you dig into it. That's just a media date.

Because auto's are complex but not complex if that makes any sense it appears the gov't wont implement tariffs on the parts coming from Canada until they can figure out a way to actually track and sort that. Not complex because a system should be doable for that, complex because of all the thousands of inputs / parts. The new policy says USMCA-compliant auto parts will remain tariff free until the Secretary of Commerce in consultation with US customs and Border Protection establishes a process to apply tariffs. That kind of tells you while he preaches its easy for the camera, he knows off camera that its not. But that certainly does not mean not doable.

Its interesting because vehicles are already supposed to be labeled with what is made where, but the US gov't cant do that effectively currently based on current tracking systems so they use various approaches and they just consider domestic as a geographic concept rather than strictly by nation.

Then if you go look at the US Dept of Transportation report on domestic car content, they lump Canada and the US together.


Someone is going to make some bank developing a system that works to distinguish between nations for something as intertwined / integrated as autos with thousands and up to tens of thousands of individual parts.

This post was edited by SBD on Mar 28 2025 08:03am
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Mar 28 2025 11:19pm
True story, I cancelled a road trip i had planned to the states

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/canada-united-states-travel.html
Canadians pull back on U.S. trips, threatening to widen United States’ $50 billion travel deficit

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Mar 29 2025 01:35am
Canadians have this very REAL sense of security that is entirely based on premises they are throwing away. They think NO country has issues with Canada. Russia has stated many times EVERY MEMBER of NATO is an enemy.

It’s a very real possibility the US leaves NATO and the first two things that will happen are Ukraine and Poland will be taken over followed by incursions into Alaska, British Columbia and Yukon.

Trump and Carney are playing very dangerous games as is Macron. Russia has openly defied the US multiple times because the US is now seen as weak. That forces the US to bow out and let the EU and Canada handle Russia without them.

ALL OVER a NON NATO country. It’s absurd. As absurd as Trump is being Carney, Macron and Starmer are just as insane. It’s a death march.
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Mar 29 2025 07:04am
Canadians have this very REAL sense of security that is entirely based on premises they are throwing away. They think NO country has issues with Canada. Russia has stated many times EVERY MEMBER of NATO is an enemy.

It’s a very real possibility the US leaves NATO and the first two things that will happen are Ukraine and Poland will be taken over followed by incursions into Alaska, British Columbia and Yukon.

Trump and Carney are playing very dangerous games as is Macron. Russia has openly defied the US multiple times because the US is now seen as weak. That forces the US to bow out and let the EU and Canada handle Russia without them.

ALL OVER a NON NATO country. It’s absurd. As absurd as Trump is being Carney, Macron and Starmer are just as insane. It’s a death march.


Canada is secured to the west by Alaska, to the south by the mainland US and to the east by the Atlantic ocean. Neither China nor Russia have the logistics to pull off a ground invasion of Canada. Which is the exact reason why they've slacked off on their defense spending and their national security. Similar story with Western European countries like Spain or Germany.
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Mar 29 2025 09:02am
Canada is secured to the west by Alaska, to the south by the mainland US and to the east by the Atlantic ocean. Neither China nor Russia have the logistics to pull off a ground invasion of Canada. Which is the exact reason why they've slacked off on their defense spending and their national security. Similar story with Western European countries like Spain or Germany.


I’m saying Trump LETS RUSSIA IN. Don’t underestimate the depth of his ignorance when it comes to the backlash he will inflict on NATO and the EU. Dude doesn’t care about “Norms”. He is clearly favoring Russia over NATO.

Also Russia can get to British Columbia without stepping foot on US soil.

This post was edited by MadMan87 on Mar 29 2025 09:05am
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Mar 29 2025 10:37am
I’m saying Trump LETS RUSSIA IN. Don’t underestimate the depth of his ignorance when it comes to the backlash he will inflict on NATO and the EU. Dude doesn’t care about “Norms”. He is clearly favoring Russia over NATO.

Also Russia can get to British Columbia without stepping foot on US soil.


Russia doesn't have the logistics to pull that off. China has a stronger navy than them and still can't pull off the amphibious invasion of Taiwan which is 200km away, yet Russia is supposed to be able to invade Canada, which is 5000km away? Give me a break.
The US are literally the only country on the planet which is capable of carrying out an amphibious invasion of a non-negligible foe[1] on the other end of an ocean.



[1] The Argentinian presence on the Falkland Islands is a historical example of a negligible foe.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 29 2025 10:38am
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Mar 29 2025 11:01am
I’m saying Trump LETS RUSSIA IN. Don’t underestimate the depth of his ignorance when it comes to the backlash he will inflict on NATO and the EU. Dude doesn’t care about “Norms”. He is clearly favoring Russia over NATO.

Also Russia can get to British Columbia without stepping foot on US soil.


What's wrong with favouring Russia over the EU? It's also important to note and correct you that the US *is* NATO.

The EU is openly hostile to the US and is actively undermining core American values. Meanwhile, Russia shares Imperial Christian values. The EU is also incredibly weak, they have no army, while Russia has the most powerful land army in the world with cutting edge undefeated land military doctrine & strategical logistics, along with having the largest functional arsenal of nuclear weapons. Russia also controls far more territory than the EU does, and acts as a strategical piece for leverage against China.

It's clear to me that what the world is moving towards is a World Triumvirate of China, Russia, and America. These 3 global powers dwarf all others - EU is weak and irrelevant.
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Mar 29 2025 11:04am
Russia doesn't have the logistics to pull that off. China has a stronger navy than them and still can't pull off the amphibious invasion of Taiwan which is 200km away, yet Russia is supposed to be able to invade Canada, which is 5000km away? Give me a break.
The US are literally the only country on the planet which is capable of carrying out an amphibious invasion of a non-negligible foe[1] on the other end of an ocean.



[1] The Argentinian presence on the Falkland Islands is a historical example of a negligible foe.


If the US Navy wants to secure BC they can do so at any time trivially.

We have a tiny Naval base in Squampton. Nothing else.
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Mar 29 2025 11:09am
If the US Navy wants to secure BC they can do so at any time trivially.

We have a tiny Naval base in Squampton. Nothing else.


Well, duh.
Madman was talking about a different scenario, one in which the US tell Russia "Canada is yours if you want it, it's there for the taking". And my point is that Russia would simply not be able to do it because the distance and the logistical challenges are just too extreme.
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Mar 29 2025 11:14am
Well, duh.
Madman was talking about a different scenario, one in which the US tell Russia "Canada is yours if you want it, it's there for the taking". And my point is that Russia would simply not be able to do it because the distance and the logistical challenges are just too extreme.


If they have to contend with China with no assistance from the US, then sure. My understanding of his scenario is that US would allow them entry, and China's navy cannot contend with the US navy
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