Surprised they aren't asking for Kherson/Zap. Kherson can put the screws on Crimean fresh water as they did between 2014-2022, while Zap gives Ukraine access to sea of Azov, and it's also one of the most fertile Oblasts in Ukraine.

Although this is from the article:



TBH i do not see a scenario where Russia gives Ukraine access to sea of Azov, IMO that would be a big deal and a big loss. I still think a big stumbling block and point of contention is going to be:


1. What happens to rest of Donetsk (Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, etc) Russia obviously wants that land.
2. What happens to rest of Zap/Kherson. Ukraine is not going to give up Zap city. It's a huge city and important industrial city and pretty valuable.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 13 2025 08:27am

so in the long run we continue to arm Ukraine but not grant NATO membership.

they grant us mineral rights, but neither us nor Europe can station troops. meaning any rogue battalion could black flag attack them, blame them on ruskies, and try to reignite.

russia gets what russia has, but gives a bit back.

doubt the concessions on land is enough to get Zelensky to agree to no security detail, maybe he gets ousted to push it through tho.

What security deal

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/13/us-ukraine-security-deal-g7/

Port access and hashing out the borders of the contested areas seem like work for negotiators once a peace deal is underway. The most normal approach is for countries to retain the ones they already occupy and land swaps to give majority holders their full cities or suburbs around them.
We're definitely in the stages of Ukraine and Russia orbiting around a peace deal and making their own demands and counterdemands and staking positions, rather than seizing it directly. Putin today put out a statement clearly worded to navigate around either accepting or rejecting a ceasefire, saying he supports a ceasefire as an idea but needs to hash out the details first and still stakes the Russian side on a 'lasting peace' and 'remove the root causes of the crisis'.

People quickly sweeping under the rug the real reason the war started. An enemy is closing in on me and surrounding me, I will not sit and let that happen. War is bad, but lets not pretend like the US instigators are not the real reason for it.

https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/1896615936804929992

I honestly don’t see any change in this regard.

People who understood this was the reason for war still say so.

And the mainstream propaganda machine never talked about this anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/17/trump-says-he-and-putin-will-discuss-land-and-powerplants-in-ukraine-ceasefire-talks
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6yj0m1yl7o

Talks are set for Tuesday between Trump and Putin which will attempt to cover the actual points of contention in the ceasefire
They said they would try to negotiate land swaps and control of power plants, the actual steps needed for a real deal
Russia reiterated its hard lines being no Ukraine in NATO, and no NATO in Ukraine, requiring a neutral Ukraine


Ukraine also uh, said its okay with sanctions being lifted on Russia as part of a deal, but that's not whatsoever up to Ukraine to begin with so its kind of like Zelensky saying he's okay with Putin having sex with his mistress (you know, that hot gymnast)

This post was edited by Goomshill on Mar 16 2025 11:41pm

The word on the street is that Zelensky can’t sign a peace deal in exchange of giving the rare earth metals to USA because he’s already sold them to UK

There are two possible outcomes to the peace talks:
1) Trump gets angry with Putin and keep on selling weapons to Ukraine, the fighting will continue and outcome is uncertain (my bet is on Ukraine in that scenario).
2) Trump surrenders Ukraine to Putin by means like: stopping starlink internet access, banning sending satelite images to Ukraine, deny spare parts for American made equipment, ban selling ammunition.

Which of these would Trump voters rather prefer?
Honestly 1) is better by all means, but if "America first, America Alone" is a serious thing then it makes sense to have Russia conquer Europe so that America dont have to trade with those Europeans any more and can be more alone in the world full of dictators.