This week is gonna be interesting

I have a few options out but they are less than 5% of my account and mostly June expirations

Mostly tech shares

I mean it’s been a wonderful couple years so I guess the bill comes due. If today isn’t the bottom I don’t even know what comes next tho lol

This post was edited by Bazi on Mar 10 2025 01:13pm

I think the main question we have to ask is:

Are we really headed for a recession this year or not

We have federal debt refi wall of 10 trillion coming due this year. The 10 yr treasury is typically used as a benchmark for some of these other SOFR and other debt pricing curves. Remember when half a year ago the fed announced rate cuts and instead of rates falling the 10 year went to a 5% handle? Now Trump is taking gloves off and will force yields down one way or another.

This is good for:

People trying to buy a house
Young people looking to add/start positions at more reasonable valuations
Government that will have lower interest expenses as they refi this year
Corporates that use a lot of leverage and have big debt walls.
Potentially breaking inflation

IMO, view it as a buying opportunity, we need these type of washouts. I rather buy spy at 10-15% down than at ATH

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 10 2025 01:32pm

I agree its 100% a buy opportunity like any previous dips but i made the mistake of buying in too aggressively so have to sit down for now

Only thing is if we are entering a recession, market will continue to melt down for some time. I don’t see a reasonable chance of a recession but who knows.

In history market crashes have ONLY occurred for two reasons

1. Recession
2. Fed raising rates

If you don’t believe in 1., then you buy

I am literally all in. No spare cash left, and no hedge for lower atm

Last buys were more gral

This post was edited by Bazi on Mar 10 2025 02:29pm

It's actually when the fed starts lowering rates that the drops come historically. When fed is lowering rates that means the economy is slowing and needs to be stimulated with cheap funding. They usually panic and lower rates but by then it's kind of too late and the economy goes into a recession. But obviously there's exceptions, i.e. under Volker when he was hiking for a while, markets rolled over

For the average person, backbreaking inflation of 40+% over 4 years is way more hurtful than if paper assets nose dived. 50-60% have no 401k savings. Of those that do only like 30-40% contribute regularly.

Being able to buy a house, food and other things stopping from inflating are a lot more impactful vs market performance. I mean it was nice for us that have disposable incomes that we can toss into the markets and earn 20%+ a year, but most didn't really benefit, especially the ones that actually most need the help.

Long term though, the poor are still fucked, while those that own things will gobble up the wealth, that's why i think just keep adding week by week no matter what

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 10 2025 02:40pm

This was an either or statement

1. All fed hiking cycles are accompanied with > 20% bear markets (crash)

2. All recessions are accompanied with the above as well

There has never been a US market crash without one of the above

The market can still go down if rates are going down but this is only when 2. (Recession) Is in effect

For example the last rate drop cycle (covid) was accompanied with a recession.

If you go back the to the 60s, fed drop cycles lead to corrections historically (not greater than 20%) but not crashes

This post was edited by Bazi on Mar 10 2025 03:06pm

All in all the time.

Es just tapped 5555

Bottom