Looking ahead it gets a bit complicated
Per seasonality:
3/7 should have been down -3% YTD for the year which we hit and a bit more. Should be rallying into mid March, specifically putting in a local high around 3/19. Following 3/19 it’s a zig zag before a higher low in first week April. The main note is that with that local high and all the zig zagging , the historical rise is to YTD -1%. We opened at 589-590 so puts the upcoming rally near a top of 583 at or by 3/19. This is much lower than a lot of bulls are hoping for in the short term, including myself before I sat and looked at it. Especially since we have already rallied half the difference in that candle on Friday.
Also worth noting that seasonality didn’t call for that sharp rise in February so while prices might be a bit off , it’s the timeframes that I am putting more emphasis on.
TLDR
-Basically don’t fuck around too much with near dated options cuz this zig zagging is going to crush them
-583+ and up have downside protection until April
I think this becomes bouncing between 200ma and 10ma from mid March to early April before lift off after first week April
This is the plan I will be playing for
Not advice just my thoughts
This post was edited by Bazi on Mar 9 2025 10:05am