Same. Pltr short only thing that kept me green this month
Been doing a real deep dive today
Personally mistimed the February bull trade by a few sessions which was pretty costly but should still be ok.
I think a violent V the next week followed by more bearish strength into April (scenario A below)
Previously I had mentioned first half of March would be bullish but I actually think it’s just going to be this week
Post election year seasonality is giving mixed signals, two scenarios
A. 5th year presidency
-violent V within first week of March before grind down until April before huge rally into mid May
B. Incumbent party loses
-true dead cat bounce hitting nowhere near top of range, then retest bottom after ~week into the month before grinding up until mid May without major drops
IMO it depends how high we go the first week here, spy 608 vs spy 599, 608 is A and 599 is B
For context, this year has followed scenario A more closely so far. First 2-3 trading days will let us know imho
Interestingly there is only one cycle where there is both a 5th year presidency and incumbent party losing which was president Clover in 1893
Looking like Scenario B
Went to 597 premarket which was pretty shady and slimy but will have to do
Dead cat tomorrow to hedge
Bottoms this week Thursday, Friday or possibly Monday, my guess is 562-570 spy
Bullish after
This post was edited by Bazi on Mar 3 2025 03:55pm