Perhaps Russian oil will flow. We'll see. If Trump gets our on-shore production ramped back up, we have the advantage. Crude doesn't help most of Europe, they need refined. We can recapture the European market, with Norway taking in most of the Russian Crude to refine and selling the end product, providing competition vs the US refineries.
As far as working as an intermediary for LNG, that was Biden's goal, and he tried to do it through Burisma in Ukraine. Something having to do with his son. I dunno.
As long as Russia trades it in USD, it's all good. Something tells me they may not wish to rejoin the European oil trade at all though, they'll stick with their Asian customers and let Europe rot.
Fun fact, you are not entirely correct on crude.
1) Russian oil still flows, Americans explicitly allow their traders to buy and sell it. It’s the Europeans that are trying not to buy it directly.
https://on.ft.com/3ZByhIu2) Europe has been resources short since 19th century, including energy, metals and etc. Refining capacity lags behind US and China (at about 15m bblpd vs 18-19 for US/China). Europe used to import a lot of refined product from Russia. Now the import Russian product via Turkey, “Morocco blend” (
https://energywatch.com/EnergyNews/Oil___Gas/article17166164.ece )and Saudi/India swaps.
3) Norway has only 1 refinery left and has more than enough crude production to fill its capacity. They don’t import crude. They are rapidly moving away from ICE cars to EVs as their energy is dirt cheap (0.01€/kwh in the north, higher in the south as they have to bail out Germans and their moronic Energiewende). Finland does import crude though (Neste refineries) and for decades imported Russian REBCO.
This post was edited by Malopox on Feb 20 2025 12:17am