DC getting wrecked. Reminder, 92% of DC voted for Kamala in recent elections.
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WOW. Washington DC's economy looks like 2008:
Unemployment filings in Washington DC just SURGED +36% in one week to 3 TIMES the 2024 average.
Over the last 6 weeks, unemployment filings are up +55%, now ABOVE 2008 levels.
How bad will it get? Let us explain.
Since January 20th, over 4,000 federal employees have filed first time unemployment claims in Washington DC.
Furthermore, the year-to-date total has hit nearly 7,000.
That's a whopping +55% increase over the previous 6 week period.
Last week alone, claims surged +36%.
To put this into perspective, here's a chart showing Washington DC's jobless claims back to 2008.
Weekly jobless claims are now at 1,780, or nearly 15% HIGHER than the peak seen after the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Washington DC is entering a recession as layoffs begin.
Furthermore, as we noted in a recent thread, the rise in unemployment is coming with widespread home sales.
The median home price in Washington DC is down -$139,000, or 20%, since November 2024 ALONE.
Year-over-year, home listings in the Washington DC metro area are up ~23%.
But, it is going to get even worse.
The NY Post just reported that DOGE is preparing to layoff 15 THOUSAND IRS employees.
15,000 employees is ~8.5 TIMES the number of unemployment claims seen last week.
These layoffs are expected to come as soon as next week.
Furthermore, this data does not include the 3,600 Health and Human Services employees laid off by DOGE on Friday.
We expect first time unemployment filings to surge well above 2,000 this week.
This could put DC unemployment claims more than ~30% above the post 2008-peak.
Next, add in President Trump's offer to buyout 2 million federal workers to resign.
There are currently ~2.7 million people who work for the US government.
Estimates show 5%-10% of employees will take the offer.
They technically wouldn't be unemployed until September 2025.
Let's say a modest 5% take the offer, which would mean 135,000 federal employees.
~15% of federal employees currently work in Washington DC.
This means an ADDITIONAL ~20,250 unemployment claims will come after the buyout in Washington DC ALONE.
This is just the beginning.
This also shows that the real estate melt down in Washington DC is just getting started.
Since November 2024, ~5,000 homes have been listed for sale, well above average.
We expect 10,000+ homes to be listed for sale in the coming months.
Inventory is already up +23% YoY.
The most interesting part is that we are less than 1 month into DOGE cuts.
DOGE has made it clear that some departments, like the Office of Personnel Management, could see cuts of up to 70% of the workforce.
DOGE's mass layoffs are set to alter the entire US economy.
Since DOGE began, they have cut ~$49 billion of government spending.
While this is a lot, it's a mere ~2.7% of the $1.8 trillion deficit seen in 2024.
With the goal of cutting $4 billion PER DAY, we expect major reform.
We will see the biggest spending cuts in US history.
This comes as the US deficit has SURGED to $840 billion over the last 4 MONTHS.
The US has spent $7.1 TRILLION over the last 12 months, ~7% less than the pandemic peak.
Spending cuts are our ONLY option.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1891131492207628533This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 16 2025 09:46am