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#11
Jan 17 2025 10:12pm
It's reasonable, if a bettor wants to negotiate they're free to do that

No need to intervene
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#12
Jan 17 2025 10:32pm
Quote (ZeaLORDeaL @ Jan 17 2025 10:12pm)
It's reasonable, if a bettor wants to negotiate they're free to do that

No need to intervene


Nah, the issue was that multiple people misread/misunderstood my comment as not splitting the difference, when I clearly said you wouldn't split the difference to -400, and supported my reasoning with math.

I came here as an interested bettor looking to negotiate, and even stated where the line needed to go to book it.

Then I got called a multi by a rando with 0 fg lmao.
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#13
Jan 17 2025 10:40pm
Quote (AshKC @ Jan 17 2025 08:32pm)
Nah, the issue was that multiple people misread/misunderstood my comment as not splitting the difference, when I clearly said you wouldn't split the difference to -400, and supported my reasoning with math.

I came here as an interested bettor looking to negotiate, and even stated where the line needed to go to book it.

Then I got called a multi by a rando with 0 fg lmao.


You wanna take the Texans? Just make an offer then.

Guy said he uses DK and showed the juice was +350/-455 on DK

50/50 would put it at +402.5, I would round down to +400 too.

If you want better odds for ur texans go ahead and offer him.
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#14
Jan 17 2025 10:40pm
Yeah I don’t shop my lines, wasn’t aware other books were way different.
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#15
Jan 17 2025 10:56pm
Quote (ZeaLORDeaL @ Jan 17 2025 10:40pm)
You wanna take the Texans? Just make an offer then.

Guy said he uses DK and showed the juice was +350/-455 on DK

50/50 would put it at +402.5, I would round down to +400 too.

If you want better odds for ur texans go ahead and offer him.


To be fair, he said he used DK after the fact, and as I showed, it was by far the most out of wack of all the books.

The average came in at ~ -510 on KC and +397.5 on Houston, which would "split the difference" to -453.75, which is a significant difference from -400, which I mentioned in my math post.

I said it would need to be closer to -500 minimum to book, my offer was already made. It just got cluttered up by people not knowing how to read, and just outright being trolls.
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#16
Jan 17 2025 10:58pm
I don’t think you ever offered or seemed interested in betting tbh
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#17
Jan 17 2025 11:01pm
Quote (AshKC @ Jan 17 2025 08:56pm)
To be fair, he said he used DK after the fact, and as I showed, it was by far the most out of wack of all the books.

The average came in at ~ -510 on KC and +397.5 on Houston, which would "split the difference" to -453.75, which is a significant difference from -400, which I mentioned in my math post.

I said it would need to be closer to -500 minimum to book, my offer was already made. It just got cluttered up by people not knowing how to read, and just outright being trolls.


Your friendly advice wasn't an offer to bet lol

so you think +450 is more fair for the Texans than +400, that's literally all you had to say :thumbsup:

This post was edited by ZeaLORDeaL on Jan 17 2025 11:01pm
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#18
Jan 17 2025 11:10pm
Yeah my bad guys, sorry for not being more clear in that after questioning why the line became more favorable to the guy looking to bet the favorite, and then providing math and other book quotes for comparison, and then going as far to suggest the line value to book the bet at.


Glad we could at least agree that the 13.75% ev shift (now 13.25% ev shift for those sharps) was spot on when I made the post hours ago.


I'm just going to drag my ass back over to lake's book. Good luck OP and friends.
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#19
Jan 18 2025 01:28am
Quote (AshKC @ Jan 17 2025 08:18pm)
Caesars is -550
MGM is -500
FanDuel is -500
BetOnline is -515
Bovada -550
Bookmaker at -510



Furthermore, you don't take the -455 from DK and then "split the difference" with the houston bet of +350 to turn it inot a -400/, that's a 13.75% EV shift for you and a -14.28% EV shift for them.


If you're trying to get someone to book moneyline action with you, you're going to need to get into the ballpark of -500 minimum, and more likely to be in the -510 range for this spread listed.

Nobodoy is booking -400, much less -455 on this bet lmao.


Rofl wtf are u on about? We’ve always split the difference for ml bets. He posted the book he’s using.
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#20
Jan 18 2025 02:16am
Quote (Noun @ Jan 18 2025 01:28am)
Rofl wtf are u on about? We’ve always split the difference for ml bets. He posted the book he’s using.


My dude, you are exactly the person I refer to earlier in this thread about misreading comments.

You literally quoted me quoting all of the books which are mostly in the -515 range, and you're arguing that I said we don't split the difference, when I clearly state we wouldn't split it to -400.


I even did the math on it. Some of ya'll need to stop drinking and posting.

Edit: Also the book he was using was posted after I made the first book quote lmao.

This post was edited by AshKC on Jan 18 2025 02:17am
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