We're definitely going to see california regulatory mismanagement come to a head in the next year. This will be the proximate event that makes the broken system finally hit a wall. Rebuilding permits can take multiple years to acquire due to insane bureaucratic red tape even though mortgage payments are still due on destroyed properties, while the few insurance companies still forcibly held against their will in california by hostile regulations are paying out $1.09 in benefits for each $1.00 in premiums- not including overhead- and thats before this series of fires. The last stab by California wasn't to stabilize the insurance market with subsidization like the ACA did with taxpayer funny money, but instead grab them by the balls and squeeze by forcing them to cover 85% of wildfire areas, not factor in reinsurance hikes into premiums and put price controls on premiums and forbid california-only rate hikes. Basically might as well have passed legislation declaring the state of california has annexed the coffers of state farm and all premiums paid by residents of the other 49
The tighter the death grip, the more people will try to wriggle out. What happens when too many people all need to rebuild or relocate at the same time and theres no money, no approval, no functional governance?
I was talking to some people at work the other day and I'm personally not a fan of federal bailout here. Average value of home in Pacific Palisades was ~3.3 million. Insurance companies should eat those costs and if they can't that's on them to work out. Living in the rust belt and seeing so many communities left for dead, why the fuck should a wealthy coastal CA get bailed out by federal funds while no one gives a fuck about middle America?
Maybe it's events like these that causes California real estate to reprice to more reasonable prices. The free market has a wonderful way of correcting course over the long term.