My cash target heading into 2025 will be ~20%
Still heavily invested for the long run but markets are in overbought territory on the 1-month timeframe.. it can stay overbought levels for awhile tho. Last time we were this overbought was December 2021.
Im still very much bullish but prepared for a rollercoaster in 2025. Always nice to be ready.
The same argument was used December 2020, record overbought. What followed was an additional ~30% move in indices before the December 2021 correction, that took you within dollars of the actual record December 2020 overbought conditions. I will make cash through covered calls but will plan to invest most of that cash through bearish months
I’ll continue to play seasonality as I have the last 5 years, cheat sheet has worked wonders for me
Post election year seasonality last 50 years, after incumbent has been removed:
2025
January slow grind up
Feb dip
March flat
April very bullish
May bullish then flat
June bearish , drop 3rd week
July most bullish of the year
August bear after relative peek during first week
September bear , bottoms September 20-26ish
Longest and consistent (no >1% dips)Xmas rally of 4 year cycle October, November and December
Early 2026, just like 2022
Build cash
Merry Xmas all!!!
This post was edited by Bazi on Dec 25 2024 10:47am