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Nov 7 2011 03:25am
None of the answers are correct. The answer "25%" has a 50% chance of being chosen; the answer "50%" has a 25% chance of being chosen; the answer "60%" has a 25% chance of being chosen. Since none of the answers are equivalent to their respective probabilities, none are correct.

Here is a similar question that is even more perplexing.
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
A ) 25%
B ) 50%
C ) 50%
D ) 75%
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Nov 7 2011 03:00pm
Quote (frail @ Nov 7 2011 05:25am)
None of the answers are correct. The answer "25%" has a 50% chance of being chosen; the answer "50%" has a 25% chance of being chosen; the answer "60%" has a 25% chance of being chosen. Since none of the answers are equivalent to their respective probabilities, none are correct.

Here is a similar question that is even more perplexing.
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
A ) 25%
B ) 50%
C ) 50%
D ) 75%


That's exactly what I said. Two great minds.
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Nov 7 2011 05:02pm
I still think it's ACDC :cry:
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Nov 7 2011 06:44pm
Quote (Subwoofer @ Nov 4 2011 01:40am)
if i told you to pick a ball at random would it matter what color the ball was? no because then its not random because you thought about it.

random to me is like a blind test so you don't know anything other than you have to pick one of four.


If I gave you 9 red balls and one blue one and asked to pick a ball at random, what's the chance that you will pick a red one? According to your logic it's 1/10.
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Nov 8 2011 02:23am
Quote (russian @ Nov 7 2011 07:44pm)
If I gave you 9 red balls and one blue one and asked to pick a ball at random, what's the chance that you will pick a red one? According to your logic it's 1/10.


at random means the details can't play a role in your choice. if you can calculate something it very well can't be random now can it?

thats the kind of issues you run into with these paradox questions they make no sense on multiple levels.
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Nov 8 2011 08:24am
Quote (Subwoofer @ Nov 8 2011 03:23am)
at random means the details can't play a role in your choice. if you can calculate something it very well can't be random now can it?

thats the kind of issues you run into with these paradox questions they make no sense on multiple levels.

Just because the details don't play a role in your choice doesn't mean the probabilities aren't pre-determined and able to be calculated. Like you can roll two dice, and you know without a doubt that you have a 6 in 36 chance of the sum being 7, a 5 in 36 of it being 6 or 8, 4 in 36 of it being 5 or 9, ... and a 1 in 36 chance of it being 2 or 12. If you roll a pair of dice hundreds of times, you'll see that probability distribution emerge.

So in this question, if you pick just one answer at random, you have a 50% chance that you pick "25%", and a 25% chance that you pick "50%" or "60%". No matter which you pick at random, it does not correctly answer the question asked.

At least, that is if you use a random probability distribution such that every choice is equally likely. Like I said in my first post, you could use a weighted random distribution so that you still pick randomly, but it's more likely that you pick one answer over others.
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Nov 8 2011 08:39am
Quote (bentherdonethat @ Nov 8 2011 09:24am)
Just because the details don't play a role in your choice doesn't mean the probabilities aren't pre-determined and able to be calculated. Like you can roll two dice, and you know without a doubt that you have a 6 in 36 chance of the sum being 7, a 5 in 36 of it being 6 or 8, 4 in 36 of it being 5 or 9, ... and a 1 in 36 chance of it being 2 or 12. If you roll a pair of dice hundreds of times, you'll see that probability distribution emerge.

So in this question, if you pick just one answer at random, you have a 50% chance that you pick "25%", and a 25% chance  that you pick "50%" or "60%". No matter which you pick at random, it does not correctly answer the question asked.

At least, that is if you use a random probability distribution such that every choice is equally likely. Like I said in my first post, you could use a weighted random distribution so that you still pick randomly, but it's more likely that you pick one answer over others.


i dislike how they made the only probability sources and choices the same thing. answers inside a question is a stupid format lol.
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Nov 8 2011 12:21pm
Quote (Subwoofer @ Nov 8 2011 01:23am)
at random means the details can't play a role in your choice. if you can calculate something it very well can't be random now can it?

thats the kind of issues you run into with these paradox questions they make no sense on multiple levels.


Of course the details don't play a role in your choice. But that doesn't change the fact that your choice, made randomly, will have certain outcomes. I'm not saying "pick a ball at random but make sure it's red". I'm saying "pick a ball at random" and after you pick we see whether the ball was red or blue. If you pick a ball at random 10 times, you will likely have more red ones than blue ones, even though you may even be colourblind and unable to tell the difference at all.

If I give you a bunch of basketballs and ask you to pick a ball at random, what are the chances that you'll pick something that's made of rubber? 100%, even though you are picking at random and not factoring the fact that they are made of rubber into your decision.

Random choice simply means that you are equally likely to pick any particular choice out of the ones available. It doesn't mean that the choices themselves are not different, that some may be correct and some not, that some may be blue and others red. It only means that those differences won't factor into your decision.
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Nov 8 2011 12:23pm
Quote (russian @ Nov 8 2011 01:21pm)
Of course the details don't play a role in your choice. But that doesn't change the fact that your choice, made randomly, will have certain outcomes. I'm not saying "pick a ball at random but make sure it's red". I'm saying "pick a ball at random" and after you pick we see whether the ball was red or blue. If you pick a ball at random 10 times, you will likely have more red ones than blue ones, even though you may even be colourblind and unable to tell the difference at all.

If I give you a bunch of basketballs and ask you to pick a ball at random, what are the chances that you'll pick something that's made of rubber? 100%, even though you are picking at random and not factoring the fact that they are made of rubber into your decision.

Random choice simply means that you are equally likely to pick any particular choice out of the ones available. It doesn't mean that the choices themselves are not different, that some may be correct and some not, that some may be blue and others red. It only means that those differences won't factor into your decision.


ya i get all this i'm just saying the format used in this question makes a paradox confusing rather than just being a paradox.
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Nov 23 2011 06:33am
Quote (L4d @ 2 Nov 2011 11:52)
Why are A and D the same choices?


Becuse its a riddle.
I would guess for 50% at first glance but its false due to it still being 4 choices with 3 possibilities so i gota land on 33,333333333333% knowing its incorrect for that matter.
The problem with this is you could get 2 varibles of 25%

Well to the trick that makes it a riddle.
Neither of the options on the question is correct.
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