and what are those odds?

Do the math yourself.

human GENOME is 3.5 billion letters long in sequential order ( perfect ).

i can't, i don't have enough information to do the calculation... and i don't think you have enough either.

This post was edited by Azrad on Dec 20 2012 09:01am

Go google it if u don't believ eme

i don't think anyone else has that information either....

lets do a little example calculation:

What is the chance an average major league baseball pitcher will pitch a no hitter in their lifetime:

A. The chance an average pitcher will prevent a single batter from getting a hit. I do not know this number, but baseball keeps good records so this number could be gotten, for sake of argument lets say its is A = .8

B. Raise A to the power of the number of batters faced in a no hitter (9*3=27), B = A^27 = 0.00242, this is the chance that any given game will be a no hitter, for the pitcher in question.

C. Multiply B by the number of games an average pitcher pitches in. This number is also unknown but again, baseball keeps good records and this number could get gotten with those records, lets say its 50. C = B*50 =0.120

So the chance of an average pitcher pitching a no hitter in their lifetime is about 0.12% or about 1 chance in a 1000

Now lets repeat this calculation for your question:

A. The chance 1 rung on the dna ladder will created by a "a random unguided mindless" process in a certain unknown time frame: unknown. And I don't know anyway to get it. A = unknown

B. The number of rungs on a dna ladder of the simplest thing we will all agree is alive (very large number): unknown. It might be conceivable to get this number, but I certainly don't know how. B = unknown^unknown

C. Multiply B by the number of places this could have happened (many many places per square meter, on many different planets; a huge number): unknown. * number of time intervals from A when this could have happened (if the time interval is seconds, it would be the number of seconds that has transpired at the average location, a huge number): unknown. C = (unknown^unknown)*unknown*(unknown/unknown)


this is your number --> (unknown^unknown)*unknown*(unknown/unknown)

The truth is, you have no idea how big or small this number is, and neither do I.

and you have the arrogance to say:


I'm sure you want this number to be tiny, to fit your world view... But I am unconvinced.

/e
and i'm sure there are many factors I've overlooked but until those unknowns above are addressed it is pointless to add more factors.

This post was edited by Azrad on Dec 20 2012 09:47am

I never said I was trying to guess your number. I said pick a number and ask what the odds were of you picking that exact one. That's what we are doing with this whole "how likely are you to be here" exercise. Picking an event that happened and then trying to come up with as many variables as we can that were involved, and multiplying them all out.

Pick up a rock and throw it. How many times would you have to throw that same rock to get an absolutely perfectly identical flight trajectory through the air, down to a thousands of a millimeter? A million? 10 million, perhaps? So your chances of getting it to fly exactly that way were pretty tiny, but it happened anyway.

lol well yeah he's saying he loves her in that part of the movie you twat. i don't think he's calling it a miracle solely on its statistical improbability.

why i temporarily even

I loved this scene