Quote (Promotion @ Sun, Mar 29 2009, 12:55pm)
I don't care how far off it was, it was a question based around how big was it length and size wise, and if it made impact with earth would it be able to cause global damage?
The asteroid you are concerned with is probably 99942 Apophis, which was one of the most recent and significant asteroid encounters. This particular asteroid was listed as a Near Earth Object simply (NEO), the asteroid threatened our orbit quite immenently when it was discovered to have a rather strange approach vector with the Earth in its path. The Torino scale, is a number based scale for the danger of asteroids, like 99942 Apophis, this particular one was ranked a 1, which means that it was largely a "false alarm".
Asteroids have very unpredictable approach vectors because some of them come into orbit every day, making it tricky for astronomers to know exactly when and how much damage a potential Near Earth Object will cause.
For the case of 99942 Apophis, it would pact a destructive capacity of 880 megatons of tnt. To put that in perspective the largest volcano explosion on Earth ocurred in Krakatoa which unleashed a mere 220 megatons of tnt. This caused global ash and it did black out the sun for most of the earth. It also lowered world temperatures by a small degree. Such an asteroid would be devastating to all forms of life, and would likely cause an mass slaughter of human lives. An average hydrogen bomb has around 1 or 2 megatons of TNT.
Here are the chances of 99942 Apophis actually striking: Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the keyhole would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006 Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of April 16, 2008, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is calculated as
1 in 45,000.[6] An additional impact date in 2037 was also identified; the impact probability for that encounter was calculated as
1 in 12.3 million.Here is another asteroid that is predicted to approach with a 1/300 chance in striking the earth (2004 MN4) This particular asteroid is a 2 on the torino scale, the first of its kind
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.htmlBetter start playing the lottery! =)
This post was edited by Jazz_Thing on Mar 29 2009 09:21am