I need to know formulas to calculate chance of getting desired amount of specific suffixes/preffixes during crafting.

For example let's say i want to craft caster belt with ilvl 21, and this suffixes:
1) +24% Faster Hit Recovery
2) Replenish Life +3 to +5
What is chance to get it?
Post all calculations please.

10fg will go to first person who will post correct answer.

0.6714927 %

Something is missing ^^

This post was edited by kukiFBK on Nov 12 2009 06:50am

First of all, with ilvl 21 as a result these are the chances for a certain number of affixes:

20% 4 affixes (+ predetermined affixes by craft recipe)
20% 3 affixes
20% 2 affixes
40% 1 affix only

For further information I need to know the exact TYPE of belt you want to use?

Sharkskin?

And do you want any MORE affixes or just these 2?

This post was edited by aneas on Nov 12 2009 06:54am

I'm not 100% sure if this is right, should be

there is 13 suffix for that level, which from 2 is needed
and
5 prefix, 0 needed

2/18 * 1/17 *0.2=0.001307 chance to get the mods with 2 affixes
+
0.2* 1.5* (2/18 * 1/17)=0.001961 chance to get the mods with 3 affixes
+
0.2* 2* (2/18 * 1/17)=0.0026144 chance to get the mods with 4 affixes
~
0.0058824
=
0,6%

This post was edited by Dorieus on Nov 12 2009 07:14am

This would be right IF all affixes (or groups of affixes) had the same probability to spawn... but that is not the case...

2 Benutzer: aneas, Faelwen

lol, post something, I KNOW you know it :-D

So fary you are right of course
It should be light belt, so qlvl is equal 7 and (but that ilvl 21 is craft ilvl, so clvl, qlvl and base ilvl doesn't matter for us is this case
/e ups, of course it does. alvl = ilvl - qlvl/2 = 18 ofc ;)).
And you can show me example of one of this:
+ only this 2 mods
+ this 2 mods and 0-2 random mods
Both will be fine for me, i just want to know method exact to calculate this myself.


This. + you forgot about few other things


I pmed Faelwen yesterday but he haven't time or didn't know, so topic is still open for all ^^


// edit
So far i figured this myself:
With ilvl 21 i have 18 possible Rare Suffixes and Total Frequency equal 51.
Each of my suffixes have frequency equal 4, so chance to get them are 4/51 = 7,84313725 %
But then how to calculate total chance?
I think it should be like this:
We want to get 2 affixes, to we can get fhr first and rl after it, or rl first, and fhr after it.
For rl first we have chance equal to 4/51 and then 4/47 for fhr (we can't pick rl again obviously).
For fhr first we have chance equal to 4/51 and then 4/39 for rl (we can't pick any of affixes in fhr group again).
Total chance should be equal to (4/51)*(4/47)+(4/51)*(4/39) = (4/51)*((4/47)+(4/39)) = 0.0147192538 = ~1,47%

With ilvl 21 we have 20% chance to get exactly 2 affixes, and since this affixes can be prefixes or suffixes, next 25% chance to get 2 suffixes.
It means that chance to to get 2 suffixes with ilvl 21 is equal to (1/4)*(1/5)=1/20
So in our case it would be 1,47192538% / 20 = 0,073596269%

Or if we want 2 suffixes and 0-2 random affixes:
20%->2 affixes: they must be 2 suffixes, so its only 25% chance for that 2 affixes will be 2 suffixes, so 1/5*1/4 = 1/20
20%->3 affixes: they must be 2 suffixes, so its 37.5% chance for that from 3 affixes at least 2 of them will be suffixes, so 1/2*1/4 = 1/8
20%->4 affixes: they must be 2 suffixes, so its 62.5% chance for that from 4 affixes at least 2 of them will be suffixes, so 10/16*1/4 = 5/32
So total chance to get at least 2 affixes: 1/20 + 1/8 + 5/32 = 53/160 = 33.12%
And to get correct suffixes is: 0.0147192538 * 0.33125 = 0.00487575282 = 0.48% chance.

But if you know affixes calculator... it gives other result anyway. So i'm confused.

This post was edited by kukiFBK on Nov 12 2009 08:04am

I bet Faelwen is fakeafk. Kid like him is clueless anyways

okay, let's break down what I know:

ilvl of crafted item = fixed at lvl 21 (which makes everything else pointless)
But why does qlvl not matter?

ImO affix level calculation includes qlvl, so affix lvl alvl = 21 - (7/2) = 21 - 3,5 (rounded to 3,0) = 18.

Then there are 10 suffix groups that include suffixes up to the calculated alvl.

Right so far?

K, seen your calculating with the right affixes, so nvm... but still ImO qlvl matters^^

This post was edited by aneas on Nov 12 2009 08:05am