With light belt and ilvl 1 we have only 4 suffixes in 4 other groups.
Let's say i want 3 specific suffixes at once (and cant get 4 suffixes at once anyway).
20%->3 affixes: they must be 3 suffixes, so its 1/8 chance for that from 3 affixes all of them will be suffixes, so 1/8*1/4 = 1/32
20%->4 affixes: they must be 3 suffixes, so its 1/4 chance for that from 4 affixes exactly 3 of them will be suffixes, so 1/4*1/4 = 1/16
So total chance to get at least 3 affixes: 1/32 + 1/16 = 3/32 = 0,09375
Frequency calculations:
There are 4 suffixes, with 4, 3, 4, and 3 frequency. Let's pick first 3.
Can be pick in that order:
First, second, third: 4/14 * 3/10 * 4/7 = 0.0489795918
First, third, second: 4/14 * 4/10 * 3/6 = 0.0571428571
Second, first, third: 3/14 * 4/11 * 4/7 = 0.0445269017
Second, third, first: 3/14 * 4/11 * 4/7 = 0.0445269017
Third, first, second: 4/14 * 4/10 * 3/6 = 0.0571428571
Third, second, first: 4/14 * 3/10 * 4/7 = 0.0489795918
Total: 0.150649351
With this example we don't need to care about fourth affix because it can't be suffix

(chance to get at least 3 affixes)*(chance to get correct suffixes) = 0,09375 * 0.150649351 = 0.0141233767 = 1,41233767 %
Calculator shows 2.6363636 %
Bang.
Quote (Faelwen @ Nov 12 2009 06:44pm)
You cannot have more than 3 prefixes or 3 suffixes on a rare/crafted item, so the 4-prefix (P P P P) and 4-suffix (S S S S) combos are purely fictitious.
Possible 3-affix combos: 1P2S, 2P1S, 3P, 3S
Possible 4-affix combos: 1P3S, 2P2S, 3P1S
Generating 2 desired suffixes from 3 picks (1P2S or 3S)
1st + 2nd
1st + 3rd
2nd + 3rd
(or in the opposite order)
12 ways
Generating 2 desired suffixes from 4 picks (1P3S or 2P2S)
1st+2nd
1st+3rd
1st+4th
2nd+3rd
2nd+4th
3rd+4th
(or in the opposite order)
24 ways
Aren't we already included chance for "or in the opposite order" during calculating frequencies? (i.e rl first then fhr + fhr group first, then rl)
So we need combinations rather than permutations here.
Anyway situations when 3 suffixes are rolled are problematic, since wrong suffix can affect chance to roll right one randomly, depends on it frequency.
(which for 2 suffixes needed gives us 4*(suffix pool amount) combinations rather than 2 as normally ^^)
This post was edited by kukiFBK on Nov 12 2009 12:05pm