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Nov 12 2009 11:23am
Quote (AyeCaramba @ Nov 12 2009 06:08pm)
Look at it this way:

We only want 2 specific suffixes, but there is a chance of a 3rd pick.

We are therefore trying to work out the probability of picking 2 outcomes from either 2 or 3 picks. You have to factor in the 3rd pick to get the correct probability for the 3 and 4 affixes since we could have done two picks with only one from the required two so we are relying on the third pick to complete our requirement. The third pick is going to be hugely complicated to get the odds for since we could have excluded any 2 of 10 suffix groups.


Yes, now i see what you mean. You are right :)
I'm too lazy to do it manually atm, but maybe i'll do just for check.
Somehow i thing result from calc differ too much to be correct anyway ;)

/edit
I'll just check it for low ilvl i think, and we will see. Afk checking ^^

This post was edited by kukiFBK on Nov 12 2009 11:24am
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Nov 12 2009 11:44am
You cannot have more than 3 prefixes or 3 suffixes on a rare/crafted item, so the 4-prefix (P P P P) and 4-suffix (S S S S) combos are purely fictitious.

Possible 3-affix combos: 1P2S, 2P1S, 3P, 3S
Possible 4-affix combos: 1P3S, 2P2S, 3P1S

Generating 2 desired suffixes from 3 picks (1P2S or 3S)
1st + 2nd
1st + 3rd
2nd + 3rd
(or in the opposite order)
12 ways

Generating 2 desired suffixes from 4 picks (1P3S or 2P2S)
1st+2nd
1st+3rd
1st+4th
2nd+3rd
2nd+4th
3rd+4th
(or in the opposite order)
24 ways

This post was edited by Faelwen on Nov 12 2009 11:44am
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Nov 12 2009 11:44am
With light belt and ilvl 1 we have only 4 suffixes in 4 other groups.
Let's say i want 3 specific suffixes at once (and cant get 4 suffixes at once anyway).

20%->3 affixes: they must be 3 suffixes, so its 1/8 chance for that from 3 affixes all of them will be suffixes, so 1/8*1/4 = 1/32
20%->4 affixes: they must be 3 suffixes, so its 1/4 chance for that from 4 affixes exactly 3 of them will be suffixes, so 1/4*1/4 = 1/16
So total chance to get at least 3 affixes: 1/32 + 1/16 = 3/32 = 0,09375

Frequency calculations:
There are 4 suffixes, with 4, 3, 4, and 3 frequency. Let's pick first 3.
Can be pick in that order:
First, second, third: 4/14 * 3/10 * 4/7 = 0.0489795918
First, third, second: 4/14 * 4/10 * 3/6 = 0.0571428571
Second, first, third: 3/14 * 4/11 * 4/7 = 0.0445269017
Second, third, first: 3/14 * 4/11 * 4/7 = 0.0445269017
Third, first, second: 4/14 * 4/10 * 3/6 = 0.0571428571
Third, second, first: 4/14 * 3/10 * 4/7 = 0.0489795918
Total: 0.150649351
With this example we don't need to care about fourth affix because it can't be suffix :)

(chance to get at least 3 affixes)*(chance to get correct suffixes) = 0,09375 * 0.150649351 = 0.0141233767 = 1,41233767 %

Calculator shows 2.6363636 %

Bang.

Quote (Faelwen @ Nov 12 2009 06:44pm)
You cannot have more than 3 prefixes or 3 suffixes on a rare/crafted item, so the 4-prefix (P P P P) and 4-suffix (S S S S) combos are purely fictitious.

Possible 3-affix combos: 1P2S, 2P1S, 3P, 3S
Possible 4-affix combos: 1P3S, 2P2S, 3P1S

Generating 2 desired suffixes from 3 picks (1P2S or 3S)
1st + 2nd
1st + 3rd
2nd + 3rd
(or in the opposite order)
12 ways

Generating 2 desired suffixes from 4 picks (1P3S or 2P2S)
1st+2nd
1st+3rd
1st+4th
2nd+3rd
2nd+4th
3rd+4th
(or in the opposite order)
24 ways

Aren't we already included chance for "or in the opposite order" during calculating frequencies? (i.e rl first then fhr + fhr group first, then rl)
So we need combinations rather than permutations here.
Anyway situations when 3 suffixes are rolled are problematic, since wrong suffix can affect chance to roll right one randomly, depends on it frequency.
(which for 2 suffixes needed gives us 4*(suffix pool amount) combinations rather than 2 as normally ^^)

This post was edited by kukiFBK on Nov 12 2009 12:05pm
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