Your calculation seems to be correct ofc.
We had the same result for exactly 2 affixes.

Going to do some math now on how subsequent calculations of "2 out of 3" and "2 our of 4" affixes would increase that chance to what is shown by the calc on indiablo.

I would wait until he states whether Required Level > 29 is an issue or not.

Assume it is not...

It's just about knowing whether the calc does its work correctly^^

Calculator (neglecting any Lvl req ofc) shows 0.81xx % as a result, which somehow seems incorrect to me.

Of course example is lld related, but i just want to know if my method of calculation was right.
Your calculations for exactly 2 suffixes seem correct (they are exactly same as ours so far), but i did also calculations for at least 2 suffixes and 0-2 affixes and it still gives other result than german clac.
So i'm curious... ^^


I had the same feeling, thats why i checked manually and was surprised then ^^

/Edit
Btw if our calculations are correct, then it's new view on crafting lld belts (any maybe few other items). Everyone do this with lvl 21, when 31 would be better because of 60% chance for 2 affixes
(even after including that more affixes are possible)

This post was edited by kukiFBK on Nov 12 2009 09:01am

The reasons for your differences:

1) Your fraction for 4 affixes - Should this not be 11/16 as there are only 5 outcomes without at least 2 Suffixes (You're using 6?)
2) I don't think you are factoring in the possible 3rd suffix pick for 3 and 4 affixes.

This post was edited by AyeCaramba on Nov 12 2009 10:00am

The calculations for 3 or 4 affixes are fairly complex.

- One would have to account for every possible prefix/suffix on every single pick, as the chosen affix (group) would have a direct impact on the frequency sum for subsequent picks.
- There are 12 ways of picking the 2 desired suffixes from 3 picks (1P2S or 3S) and 24 possibilities from 4 picks (1P3S or 2P2S).
- Not all groups contain the same number of affixes.
- Not all affixes have the same frequency.

So, which one will it be? By hand or using the affix calculator script?

This post was edited by Faelwen on Nov 12 2009 10:18am

wow, my teacher was right i was going to use math for everything.

1. S S S S
2. P S S S
3. S P S S
4. S S P S
5. S S S P
6. P P S S
7. P S P S
.8 P S S P
.9 S P P S
10. S S P P
11. S P S P
12. P P P S
13. P P S P
14. P S P P
15. S P P P
16. P P P P

Yes, you are right. But it's minor error and will still give other result than calc after correcting it.
But you spoted it nice, thanks!


I do? Or I don't understand what you mean
If i have two already then third doesn't change anything (so it can be prefix or suffix - it doesn't matter).
I just need to know how are chances to get 2 suffixes form x affixes, am I right?

Corrected calculations:
Or if we want 2 suffixes and 0-2 random affixes:
20%->2 affixes: they must be 2 suffixes, so its only 25% chance for that 2 affixes will be 2 suffixes, so 1/5*1/4 = 1/20
20%->3 affixes: they must be 2 suffixes, so its 50% chance for that from 3 affixes at least 2 of them will be suffixes, so 1/2*1/4 = 1/8
20%->4 affixes: they must be 2 suffixes, so its 68,75% chance for that from 4 affixes at least 2 of them will be suffixes, so 11/16*1/4 = 11/64
So total chance to get at least 2 affixes: 1/20 + 1/8 + 11/64 = 111/320
And to get correct suffixes is: 0.0147192538 * 0.346875 = 0.00510574116 = 0.51% chance


You don't need to check/calculate chances for 3 and 4 affix if you want only 2. They can be just any random ones.
And no, there are 4 ways to pick 2 suffixes from 3 affixes and 11 ways to pick 3 suffixes from 4 affixes, which is all you need to know.
Frequencies doesn't matter for 3 and 4 affix since we don't care what will be rolled on it.

This post was edited by kukiFBK on Nov 12 2009 10:44am

Look at it this way:

We only want 2 specific suffixes, but there is a chance of a 3rd pick.

We are therefore trying to work out the probability of picking 2 outcomes from either 2 or 3 picks. You have to factor in the 3rd pick to get the correct probability for the 3 and 4 affixes since we could have done two picks with only one from the required two so we are relying on the third pick to complete our requirement. The third pick is going to be hugely complicated to get the odds for since we could have excluded any 2 of 10 suffix groups.

Im can has sociology?