The latest list in this thread shows 4. One is referred to as "new" which may mean unconfirmed. My whole point bringing this stuff up in this thread is that I believe it is less than 4 because the rates just don't line up with the rates people are finding Bers. And even moreso for runes like Sur and Gul which should be dropping like crazy according to the patterns listed.

This post was edited by renton555 on Dec 13 2017 10:35am

the rates doesn't mean shit. even if you would take dozen of thousands it would still more than likely unvalid the patterns, but yet they are right. move on ?

the players 3 ber I found is not the 1 listed, I found that same one twice...what does it being new have to do with it

doesn't line up with what exactly made up number that seems correct in your head? 4/65,553 is still no where near being in your favor

roughly 91 hours for 1 ber if my math is right (rounded down 20sec runs) ber drop not cubing up

I was just saying I didn't know if new meant confirmed or what. I've been assuming 4/65,536 is the number with all of my calculations up to this point.

As to your math:

Expected runes in X trials is easy. You just multiply the chance that the rune drops from a single chest by 6 and by the number of runs. In this case it's roughly 2725 runs.

(4/65536)*6*2725 = 0.997 expected Ber runes

At 3 runs per minute, this is 2725/3 = 908 minutes = ~15 hours. If you count cubing up, the average time to acqurie one's first Ber would be substantially less than that. I think 20 sec is a very ambitious run time to shoot for, but that was the number you gave.


In the same number (2725) of runs, you should have a 63% chance of finding at least one Ber, and a 97.6% chance of at least one Sur/Ber. What that means is that if 25 players did 2725 LK runs, only one of those players should be coming up Sur/Ber-less. And on average they each should have found 1 Ber / 2.74 Sur.



Look, for Ber it's enough of a long shot that there's nothing to go by other than feel here. My "feeling" is that if the Ber (and especially Sur) runes dropped as listed, it would be standard practice for all SP players to run LK for a few days to cube up to Infinity as soon as they got to Hell Act 3 with their first sorc. People would be doing it so often that we'd have a decent sample size to confirm these drop rates. Occasionally you'd hear about someone moaning that it took them a few more days than expected to find one. But that's not what we see. We see it taking people much longer typically. Correct me if I"m wrong here.

When you begin to include the lower runes (Lo-Gul), it's a little easier to make assumptions. Gul+ drops 40/65536 of the time. In 625 runs there's a 90% confidence that you'd get at least one. Again, if this were the case people would just immediately farm for a HOTO as soon as their untwinked sorc got to act 3, because it would be expected to take just a few hours.

Yes you are, that exactly what most of them do, and there are some numbers out there, that can't find atm (not like i really try to find them, i remember they were posted in this subforum, like 2-3 weeks ago, maybe in this thread) that estimate about ~25 hours of LK grinding to make an enigma (3 ber) from 0.

People complain A LOT from LK since is boring as fuck, but they spend a lot less runs/time that what they think to get their infinity/enigma, the ones that really take the time to timer/have a good count of run, are in the average numbers to get that runes.

And yes, making a HotO/CTA or even a Fortitude (on p3 at least) from LK is usually a one afternoon job.

wooow

20 seconds is definitely possible with a good map, TK, and 8 frame+ casting with super chest only runs.

This post was edited by LucAA on Dec 14 2017 10:52am

Thanks. This is the reply I was hoping to get. My own sample running LK is still small, prob <1k runs, and I've found a number of pul-ist runes that's pretty consistent with the rates. Just haven't found higher.

Complainers over-reporting their samples makes a lot of sense and is a pretty common gambling fallacy.



It seems possible but difficult to sustain. I guess if you're not picking up anything but HRs from the chests then there's not as much downtime for that so it seems plausible.

This post was edited by renton555 on Dec 14 2017 11:00am

wasn't including cubing up, standard practice tho...I mean the thing about lk is its pretty fucking boring. I used 20sec even generously with a great rolled map (even myself having one on my sc sorc I waste time picking up SC/GC/Jewels)
but ye rng is rng my sc sorc did 13-1500 runs before the first rune over um (was ist? I believe but did get lucky with a ohm not much later)
my HC sorc (and the only reason I can think to not rush LK (if u can get the 105bp) is obv those mobs can spawn prettttty rippy sometimes farmed 2x guls in about 6 hours with 1-2 pul/ums going for my hoto (second or third run in was first gul)

i only mentioned the ber i found (and twice at that) on p3 due to the fact i did ~3k lk runs on p8 with no ber (4patterns) but hit a unknown p3 ber pattern twice(diff chars but still)

tho most people are just going to go off the basic info (p8 best hur dur) much lower portion will take the time to actually look and see o p8 4 ber patterns p3 1 8>3
and thus getting the full info is honestly just luck im too lazy to change to p8 after killing meph so i just kept it on p3 and wtf ber?

I think the whole mechanic of these chest (sparkling aswell) are super interesting honestly wish more was done on them (esp act 5 even tho they are scarce) is super interesting and im not someone knowledgeable enough to get into game files and such but I wonder since these chest are preset if somewhere theres the drops of all 65k, furthermore is that 65k on each player setting? if ber drops with 4set items does the no drop make that ber+1 of those 4 giving the illusion of a different pattern? and what if its the other way where 1/4 of those items can drop and then the ber hits the no drop? even tho we're not keeping track of those feel like thats interesting

the a5 even tho scarce makes me curious since supposively tthe 65k is due to the bit differential between classic-lod, but those are supposively the same chest id, assuming they do follow a different TC a 5 h instead of the a 3 h, but never know someone could of been lazy and theres a decent zod drop chance, or lazy and exact same as a3 or maybe a4 (since jah+cham are confirmed) if someone knows how to get into map editor/files and comprehend them I'd love to chat

Indeed, 20s run is in theory possible but not in practice, just save and exit and enter a new game take 8-10s at least with a common laptop, never try if you can lower that time with a good gaming pc, that already almost 2 run per min instead of 3 run per min.

This is what really happen with LK (dramatization):

- Cool, I finally found a 20s map to grind LK
- Oh, a GC going to pick that since I need some skiller too
- Oh, that rack look nice too, maybe I can get a Shako and an eth Threser from the other one
- I need to remember to pick a jewel and gems, to make some craft later
5 runs later
- Shit, I'm already full, go to cain, everything is shit, go to ormus, sell some shit, cube 3 gems, to get a p.gem, go to stash, put the gem, back to runs
- I should check some small charms too, 20/5@ are sweet
- I think i see a rune drop but I don't see any, I'm going to pick all the gold to see if that true... oh, was an Eth rune.
- Should I hit some popables? well why not, in X WT he get 2 ohm from them, don't take to much time anyway...
- Fuck that monster is on top on that small charm that I reeeeally need, I going to need to kill him.
- Oh fuck, i'm full again, and that small charm was 1 def only

3 Hours and 3 bath breaks later

I'm being playing for 3 hours, that 180 min, 20s runs, that means 540 runs, go to the forum "Shit, my RNG is terrible, I have done almost 600+LK runs and don't get anything above Ist "

And that is how you make 150 runs in 3 hours and put 600 runs in your runcounter and cry on your really really bad luck.

This post was edited by Titus1986 on Dec 15 2017 03:36am