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#141
Dec 12 2017 11:43pm
Quote (renton555 @ Dec 12 2017 11:40pm)
See that just shouldn't be possible in practice.

https://i.gyazo.com/52e5b8c5f06443a8b89ad2054d52466e.png

RNG is RNG, but with enough trials, something with decent odds is practically certain to occur. In 1400 trials you are 94% to have Ohm+. Certainly it isn't hard statistically to do poorly in isolated cases like not getting as many Um runes as expected or something, but in the aggregate you should have found more than you did, even with pretty bad luck.

ETA: again to show math 1400 trials = 8400 chests. Chance of a chest with NO Ohm+ = 65514/65536. Chance of 8400 consecutive chests with no Ohm+ = (65514/65536)^8400 = ~6%.

6% can definitely happen, but it is extremely unlucky.


It definitely does happen. If you’ve ran LK over the span of thousands of runs you’ve definitely seen 500+ dry spans of no Pul+. I’m 8000 runs in without a single Ber and I’ve seen 5 Lo. There are twice as many known P7/8 Ber patterns as Lo patterns according to this list.

This post was edited by LucAA on Dec 12 2017 11:47pm
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#142
Dec 12 2017 11:56pm
Quote (LucAA @ Dec 13 2017 01:43am)
It definitely does happen. If you’ve ran LK over the span of thousands of runs you’ve definitely seen 500+ dry spans of no Pul+. I’m 8000 runs in without a single Ber and I’ve seen 5 Lo. There are twice as many known P7/8 Ber patterns as Lo patterns according to this list.


https://i.gyazo.com/10825bd28d7644b5e1719a182d898dc9.png
https://i.gyazo.com/93e6fb84a06c326644951076791eca76.png


What's more likely?

1) You (and apparently the majority of LK runners) are the most unlucky man who ever lived.
2) There's one or two too-many patterns listed for Ber and/or the drop mechanics aren't entirely understood.
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#143
Dec 13 2017 01:06am
Quote (renton555 @ Dec 13 2017 12:56am)
https://i.gyazo.com/10825bd28d7644b5e1719a182d898dc9.png
https://i.gyazo.com/93e6fb84a06c326644951076791eca76.png


What's more likely?

1) You (and apparently the majority of LK runners) are the most unlucky man who ever lived.
2) There's one or two too-many patterns listed for Ber and/or the drop mechanics aren't entirely understood.


I’ve also seen people produce 3+ in <1000 . Statistical probability does not guarantee you any drop within any amount of runs.
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#144
Dec 13 2017 01:07am
Quote (LucAA @ Dec 13 2017 12:43am)
It definitely does happen. If you’ve ran LK over the span of thousands of runs you’ve definitely seen 500+ dry spans of no Pul+. I’m 8000 runs in without a single Ber and I’ve seen 5 Lo. There are twice as many known P7/8 Ber patterns as Lo patterns according to this list.


had a Lo pop on my new sorc
so far only ber's i've seen are the 2 same chest on p3
i should be around 4-5k now all together

This post was edited by BruceDShark on Dec 13 2017 01:09am
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#145
Dec 13 2017 02:38am
Quote (LucAA @ Dec 13 2017 03:06am)
I’ve also seen people produce 3+ in <1000 . Statistical probability does not guarantee you any drop within any amount of runs.


Of course not. But probabilities approach 100% with enough trials.

Quote (LucAA @ Dec 13 2017 01:43am)
If you’ve ran LK over the span of thousands of runs you’ve definitely seen 500+ dry spans of no Pul+.


This statement is not in concordance with the drop table. The chance of going 500 consecutive runs without a Pul+ is 98.6%. In a 5000 run sample it is very unlikely to encounter such a dry spell. In 100k runs, sure you'll encounter a couple.

ETA: I'm not contending that you didn't have that dry spell, btw. I'm saying that the drop rates listed are higher than actual.

This post was edited by renton555 on Dec 13 2017 02:44am
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#146
Dec 13 2017 03:22am
A non-LK example. Consider a lottery that pays out 1 in 1,000,000 times:

695,000 trials = ~50% chance of winning at least once
1,000,000 trials = ~63% chance of winning at least once
2,000,000 = ~86%
3,000,000 = 95%
5,000,000 = 99.3%

Even with such a long shot, if you brute force enough trials it's practically sure to happen.

For farming a Ber:

1900 trials = 50% chance of getting at least one
3800 trials = 75%
5700 trials = 87.5%
12500 trials = 99.0%

This post was edited by renton555 on Dec 13 2017 03:36am
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#147
Dec 13 2017 04:38am
Quote (renton555 @ Dec 13 2017 04:38am)
The chance of going 500 consecutive runs without a Pul+ is 98.6%. In a 5000 run sample it is very unlikely to encounter such a dry spell. In 100k runs, sure you'll encounter a couple.


I wanted to clarify that I might have been wrong about this. Not the 98.6%, that number is sound, but how to determine the likelihood of a 500 dry spell happening within a 5000 sample is beyond my math wheelhouse. If each 1-499 to 4501-5000 is a discrete entity, then 1.4% becomes fairly likely. I dunno.

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#148
Dec 13 2017 06:01am
Same was here.
I did not find any single HR in the first 2k run.
Now i have completed around 3k, and just found 1 Lo (pl3), with some middle level runes.

This is rng.:)
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#149
Dec 13 2017 06:09am
Quote (kisahero @ Dec 13 2017 08:01am)
Same was here.
I did not find any single HR in the first 2k run.
Now i have completed around 3k, and just found 1 Lo (pl3), with some middle level runes.

This is rng.:)


98.4% you should have found at least one Sur/Ber. And expected 3.02 Sur, 1.1 Ber. This is not RNG. There just aren't really 11 Sur patterns, plain and simple.

This post was edited by renton555 on Dec 13 2017 06:16am
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#150
Dec 13 2017 08:41am
Quote (renton555 @ Dec 13 2017 01:09pm)
98.4% you should have found at least one Sur/Ber. And expected 3.02 Sur, 1.1 Ber. This is not RNG. There just aren't really 11 Sur patterns, plain and simple.


There are 3 confirmed bers pattern, so yeah pretty much everything you've written from there is incorrect.

Quote (Crud1ty @ Dec 12 2017 10:12pm)
Wow. Went through this topic.

Does this knowledge help finding hr's? What do you do with this information?

Why this all matters?

/e I think chances are 50:50 for every drop. Either you get it or you don't :evil:


It does not. xD

This post was edited by Melatonina on Dec 13 2017 08:42am
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