/p8

/p3 same ber ID as before this time just magic drops

Wow! This is great!!! Thank you for sharing!

Am I interpreting this data correctly? A Ber is 4/65536 to drop from a single chest pop? A rune Pul+ is 93/65536? This seems really generous. That means in 500 LK runs you have a ~17% chance of a ber drop, a 58% chance of at least Sur and a 98% chance of at least Vex. Are people really getting HRs at these rates?

With these rates, in 2000 runs you'd earn 0.73 expected Ber runes, 2.01 expected Sur runes, 0.37 Lo's and 0.92 Ohms, and basically be able to cube up to an infinity runeword. Which would be just 17 hours of running if you did 2 runs per minute. Again, seems ridiculous compared with what rates people are actually getting these runes in the field.

This post was edited by renton555 on Dec 12 2017 05:00am

I think your math is wrong

This post was edited by Hell_of_Dammed on Dec 12 2017 05:35am

Maybe. I'll show.

Expected value is additive so each chest pop results in 4/65536 expected Ber runes, and you just multiply that by 6 and by the number of trials. (4/65536)*6*2000 = ~0.73.

Probability is a bit more complicated. The chance of a chest pop with NO Ber is 65532/65536. The chance of 500 consecutive runs (3000 chests) with no ber is (65532/65536)^3000 = 0.833 or 83.3%. So 1 minus that results in the chance of at least one Ber dropping, 16.7%.

I think my math is right. What seems not to be right are these inflated drop rates, or I'm misinterpreting them.

Wow. Went through this topic.

Does this knowledge help finding hr's? What do you do with this information?

Why this all matters?

/e I think chances are 50:50 for every drop. Either you get it or you don't

This post was edited by Crud1ty on Dec 12 2017 03:14pm

The only other thing I can see that would explain the discrepancy between what is listed here and what people actually find, is that maybe the 65536 only applies to the super drops. In other words, the ~50% of the time that you get a dud chest that only drops 2-3 items wouldn't count as one of those patterns.

Personally I've only done a few hundred runs and I did find quite a few puls, an um, and an ist, so I guess it doesn't seem that far off from what's listed (except that I haven't found anything higher, but that's easy to happen in only a few hundred runs).

This post was edited by renton555 on Dec 12 2017 10:14pm

no those are patterns. they arn't different chest they are always the same exact ID

can say while the findings seem like a lot

rng is rng.

when I first started farming LK i went 13-1500ish runs before I saw my first HR
and I saw 1-2 ums 0puls in that time.

See that just shouldn't be possible in practice.

https://i.gyazo.com/52e5b8c5f06443a8b89ad2054d52466e.png

RNG is RNG, but with enough trials, something with decent odds is practically certain to occur. In 1400 trials you are 94% to have Ohm+. Certainly it isn't hard statistically to do poorly in isolated cases like not getting as many Um runes as expected or something, but in the aggregate you should have found more than you did, even with pretty bad luck.

ETA: again to show math 1400 trials = 8400 chests. Chance of a chest with NO Ohm+ = 65514/65536. Chance of 8400 consecutive chests with no Ohm+ = (65514/65536)^8400 = ~6%.

6% can definitely happen, but it is extremely unlucky.

This post was edited by renton555 on Dec 12 2017 10:57pm