Quote (NickMan @ Oct 10 2017 06:45pm)
Yes.. this seems to be correct the further I look into this
But they do not drop "routinely in the teen". Most patterns have an item count between 1 and 10 where most patterns drop an item count that follow gaussian distribution between 1 and 10
If the drop generation of these super chests would follow the "standard way" of applying TCs, we would nearly never see the same pattern twice (IMO)
This is the "standard way" all A3 (H) Chest A should execute:
[URL=https://i.imgur.com/c4IrFd6.jpg]https://i.imgur.com/c4IrFd6.jpg[/URL]
To some degree they do use these assignments, for example by only dropping items of TC72 and below
Now, I notice that item drop count tallies only equipment and to a lesser extent jewelry. What this means is that the number of object drops is much higher. In the old document written by warrior of light, sparkling chest drop mechanic is described in details. Unfortunatly, special chests such as arcane sanctuary and LK are noted as having a different mechanic where 95% would aim to drop magic and 5% would drop rare. This seems to fit the observations. But no added details are available.
I'd like to get back to understanding how many drop cycles the game executes in a given chest opening. In the other posts, it was noted that p7/8 averages 4 or 5 equipment, jewelry, and rune drops. To have observed this number of item type drops, the game must have iterated through many more drop cycles. In chest A, gold and junk both have 15 weight, while equipment and goods (from whence rune drop comes) have a combined weight of 12. The rest is player setting dependent no drop weight. That isn't very important for now.
Let's say we have eq/jewelry/rune average drop count of 4. The average total drop inclusive of gold and junks (potion, arrows, etc.) Should be about 14 under p7/8 setting. Out of 65k possible drop patterns, there should be about 65k x 14 or about 900k objects.
Given that an object is dropped the odds of its being rune is 2/42 x 14/120 or roughly 0.55%.So 900k objects should contain around 5k runes. Out of these, 0.74% should be from rune 13 to 15 (gul to ber). The patterns of gul+ identified thus far in p7/8 are 40 plus meaning that we are higher than expectation already. I am more inclined to think that we are now closer to exhausting high rune patterns.
On seeing repeated patterns. Given how chest drop cycle works, I would expect lots of repetitions. It is just a case of confirmation bias. No one is keeping track of normal chest drops or even sparkling chests. No one runs these target days in and days out. An LK run takes 22 second and you hit 6 chests producing 80 plus object drops. The easiest sparkling chest is probably arachnid cave. It would take about the same time to run but there is only one chest. Granted, drop mechanics are much more complicated than LK chests with 6 possible distinct drop procedures. It would make it much harder to notice any repeated pattern.