Quote (dro94 @ 16 Aug 2016 04:38)
9.2 or 9.3 over a 100+ years of a slow progression. It was widely believed that no human could go under 10 seconds, now we're 0.42 seconds below it. We don't know we've hit our ceiling until we stall and I guess we'll find out if in 50 years or so Bolt's record still stands.
I think his 200m will definitely be broken though. He might even break it himself in a few days time
the thing is. It's hard to tell where we really were before electronic timing which only came in 50 years ago. The margin of error is pretty huge with a stop watch. We stalled at 9.9-10 for 30 years at the introduction of automatic timing except for the ones who got caught on gear, and most of those athletes who didn't pop were probably on gear too I would guess. It was before any meaningful testing. Of all the athletes who ran sub 10 second times there's only a handful who haven't tested positive at one point in their career or been closely affiliated with athletes who have tested positive. I would say, generally speaking, the 10 second thing may not be far from accurate if you mean athletes who have never used PEDs.
This is presumptuous but I would guess the number of athletes who have run sub 10 seconds naturally is very small relative to the number of runners who have actually done it. I'm not talking about athletes who haven't tested positive, because we can safely assume there are lots who used and didn't get caught.
Let me put it this way, of all the athletes who have run sub 9.8 there isn't a single one who didn't either test positive or train with people who tested positive. Bolt included.
The only 2 who didn't pop who ran sub 9.8 is Greene. Practically every world class sprinter out of the states has been popped at least once in the last 30 years, except Greene. Makes you wonder....
and Bolt. Virtually all his country mates have popped for something at least once in the last 15 years.
I see where you're coming from in many regards, but the reality is we have stalled before. It took 15 years for someone to break Hines' record.
All that aside, yes the world record sit at 9.58, but the reality is everyone else in the world struggles to run .2 or .3 seconds slower. Nowhere near the record. That has gotta say a lot.
This post was edited by rlebar on Aug 16 2016 04:45pm