So I've spent some time with my calculator. Out of my 61 attempts, I have 54 first door fails (Jesus Fucking Christ)...and I have determined that I have an 88.5% chance of failing the Master Quest on the first door (statistically throughout all the sessions in my career).
So, I share roughly the same percentage to fail on the first door as Mike or Intrasiege does of finding an item that can sell for 3000fg on every climb.
On the bright side, I'm only 3 attempts away from passing Olbaid (fun goal) and 12 to tie/13 to break 100 total guildpoints. (last goal)

Edit: Oh for the love of god, please let me say it now, please don't get offended, I forgot what emotional young ladies frequent the Ladder Slasher subforum. I'm just being funny.
This post was edited by JayKwik on Nov 20 2007 01:45am