Quote (JayKwik)
I stick with them for 8-9 attempts. It's difficult to pick the same thing time after time after time again and have it yield the same disappointing result each time.
It's all a matter of perception, anyway. Picking bronze the first time has a 16% chance for it to be correct, but picking bronze the first time and failing and picking it again the 2nd time still yields the same chance of it being correct (16%)
We as humans like to trick our mind into thinking that if you pick one option and stay with it that it will eventually be the correct option. Unfortunately, odds don't stack with this game. Bronze could be incorrect a million times in a row, or bronze could be correct a million times in a row. Both results have nothing to do with what has happened previously.
Sorry to intrude, but this is slightly wrong. While each time is essentially a given percentage, there is also the fact that math actually tries to find it's homeostasis. Meaning the more you do, the closer to a true 16.67% it will get. The question is over how many chances do you need to make the averages start to work for you.
1/6 = 16.67% for a pass, 5/6 = 83.33%. Now take 83.33% times itself 10 times. You now have a 16.15% chance to fail 10 in a row, which if roughly equal to 1 pass.
Now, two passes in a row is = 16.17% x 16.67% = 2.78%. 83.33% times itself 20 times (or to the 20th power) = 2.61%. So, the math holds true that while you have a 1/6 chance to pass any given mq, you also have the same chance to fail 10 in a row. Knowing that you have failed 19 in a row, this is almost equal to 2 passes.
On to the point of picking the same combo each time. By picking the same combo each time, you are not assured a better percentage of passes/fails. What you are assuring yourself is that over enough mq attempts, your pass/fail ratio will draw closer and closer to the 16.67%. By changing your combo every 8-9 tries, you have not even gotten to the point where the averages of pass/fail equal themselves out. Not that they will over such a small amount of attempts anyway.
All in all, even though each mq is 1/6 in of itself, that does not mean that they are completely alone. Take enough chances, and the averages will work themselves closer and closer to the magic number.
This post was edited by blind_chief on May 7 2007 02:04pm