Are we close to the bottom in stocks? SP500, Nasdaq, main indexes.

S&p500 goes to 3500 i guess... today might be a shortsqueeze

This post was edited by nox2501 on Jul 15 2022 07:14am

I doubt it. Inflation is going up and by extension so will interest rates.

I’m guessing everything will reflect the same as the 2008 lows.

I think another season of chop

Once fed pivots, u wanna be long on that day tho

Keep collecting good names and reasonable PE ratios in the interim

Just gonna keep adding to my 401k

current market is much more like 2000 than 2008

2000 was just QE into QT and .com companies suddenly had to justify their existence instead of raising infinite free capital
right now is very similar, blockchain/web 3/metaverse talk also gave way too much runway with no real product nor business model
"cost of time" was way too low in 2000 as it is now, fed cycles of loose/tight is pretty ordinary and that's what we're seeing now

2008 quite a bit different
there was pervasive deceptive and lack of transparency in the secondary market for loans, and not just any loans, peoples' houses were the collateral.
it was an extremely unique scenario and we probably won't see anything like that in many many years.
i was a mortgage lender for a few years recently, i got yelled at constantly by pre-2008 borrowers for the sheer amount of fuckery. also fannie & freddie are still implicitly guaranteed by full faith of us gov since they're still in conservancy

my hot take though, i think monetary policy is almost powerless in fighting inflation
all previous times we were saved from inflation the US relied on globalization to deflate, the problem with 2020 to current is globalization and trade all got paused, i don't think the money printing nor bond buying would be too problematic if we had more open trading. We need the $dxy to die off to fix inflation, not the treasury yields nor fed funds rate.